Freshspective
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 | Issue 154
Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Conventional Vegetables
Mexico continues to face tight volumes, with production gradually increasing but still falling short of the high demand in the West. This is putting additional pressure on the Peruvian market, which is also experiencing low volumes due to field transitions. We anticipate an improvement starting in mid-October as new fields reach peak production.
For more information on programs, advance pricing, and promotions, please contact your Robinson Fresh representative.
Bell Peppers
[email protected]As Michigan and local deals begin to wind down, we see an opportunity for markets to rise. Let’s hope Hurricane Helene has a minimal impact on the pepper crop. Stay away from any promotions until we see the results of the storm.
Broccoli
[email protected]Broccoli volume and availability should be improving in the next few weeks as more southern areas, including the Southeast, get started. Mexico and California both have intermittent volume.
Cabbage
[email protected]
There is no product available. Market is high and will continue to be so for the next 10-14 days.
Celery supplies are steady with promotable volume available in Santa Maria and Salinas. The weather forecast calls for slightly warmer temperatures with no rain expected in the growing regions. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for updates and information regarding availability and promotions.
Cucumbers
[email protected]Georgia and North Carolina are starting to see better yields. Unfortunately for Georgia, we need to see what the impact of the Hurricane Helene will be. Mexico’s season is right around the corner as we expect to start with arrivals in Nogales by the middle of October.
Greens
[email protected]Greens out of the Midwest are steady. There are good supplies on turnip, mustard, and kale. Collard supply available in good volume. Quality is good. Transition to the South has started and will be completely transitioned to Georgia within the next 2 weeks.
Leaf Lettuce
[email protected]Iceberg lettuce, romaine, red and green leaf supplies are plentiful. Quality reports are showing good overall quality. The weather forecast calls for warmer temperatures this week. The primary shipping points are Santa Maria and Salinas. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for more details.
Potatoes
[email protected]Plenty of high quality potatoes available in multiple growing regions. Pricing remains steady. Look for things to remain stable until we get a push in demand for the holidays.
Squash
[email protected]The Georgia season is in full swing, but we need to keep an eye on Hurricane Helene to assess its impact this week. Local produce is making a final push, but the season is nearing its end. Let’s hold off on promoting any squash in the upcoming weeks until we see the outcome of Hurricane Helene. The Mexican season is scheduled to start by mid-October.
Sweet Corn
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Conventional Fruits
Apples
We are now harvesting many new varieties out of Washington, including Gala, Honeycrisp, Fuji, Granny Smith, Golden Delicious, and Red Delicious, as well as a few others. The new crop looks to be good with estimates of around 124 million cases this year. Although this is smaller than last year’s crop of around 136 million, it’s still shaping up to be a good crop! The quality of the new-crop fruit is reported to be very good, but the fruit size will run smaller than average this season which means less large tray apples and more bagging fruit this season. We continue to have good supplies of apples for this time of year out of Washington. Most varieties and packs have good availability, and quality is holding up very nicely this season. There are a few varieties and packs that have tightened a little and are resulting in some higher pricing. The Gala tray apples size 88 count and larger are a little tight as the Galas are running a little smaller this season. Also, we are seeing tightening markets on Fuji and Honeycrisp as well. Overall, we still have good supplies of apples to sell and expect attractive pricing on most varieties through the remainder of the summer. Apples will remain a good category to promote for the next several months with a predictable supply of high-quality fruit.
Avocados
Grower origins with fruit in the USA market this week and into the next 2 weeks: Mexico, California, Colombia, and Peru. Mexico is eager to start its promotional season in October as they become the overwhelmingly dominant country of origin for avocados.
KEY POINTS THIS WEEK:
- Increase in containers out of Mexico with availability of 48s more common.
- California and Peru will fully exit the marketplace over the course of this week with any remnants of fruit having more of a regional impact on volumes.
- Colombian shipments to the U.S. have dropped by over half as Mexico ramps up its shipments to the U.S.
Bush Berries
[email protected]
Blueberries - In general, very limited supply availability expected for the remainder of September.
Raspberries - California raspberry production is steadily declining. The previous heat wave brought humidity which continues to disrupt production cycles, creating some weekly harvest gaps. Baja region will pick up slowly with a second fall season cycle production. Central Mexico production is slowly improving; however, mixed quality is being reported. Growers are navigating the results of previous weather challenges, but some additional supply is expected over the next 10-14 days. Strong demand has FOB markets up on both conventional and organic fruit. Consistent supplies are not expected until the first week of October.
Pacific Northwest: Any residual volume in the pipeline will reflect marginal quality.
Peru: Some product is trickling into the marketplace with minimal/pallet volume availability.
Mexico: Some product is crossing into U.S. with pallet volumes available.
Cantaloupe
Harvest continues out of the Central Valley, California. We are seeing decent volume, but demand has jumped and availability changes daily. Subsequently, we are seeing increased pricing, and most shippers are offering pallet volumes. Pre-booking is helpful.
Citrus
Oranges:
Domestic navels are anticipated to begin mid-October. Overall crop volume is projected to be slightly up from last season with good quality. Early season sizing profile will be heavy on small fruit, which will require long gas hours to bring out the color. Valencia oranges remain extremely limited with very inconsistent quality due to excessive heat exposure.
Import navel supply volume is tight as demand increased due to the limited domestic Valencia supply. Imminent port strikes expected on October 1st will further tighten markets as containers will be held up. Midknight Valencias have started in a small way, with much of the supply committed to programs or being pre-sold before it arrives. Supply volume on oranges is expected to remain tight through September and into October until California starts. Cara Caras are available out of Chile, but also remain subject to limited availability due to the port strikes and probable delays. The last of the Minneola supply will be finished in the next week. All citrus import volume will remain limited as many importers are holding fruit to maintain inventory supplies to cover contracts in preparation for delays from the port strikes.
Argentinian import lemons are still available on all sizes and should continue to be available into October, but use caution on fancy grade as suppliers may have aging inventory. Mexican lemons are available, despite a slow start to the season. Sizing profile is heavier on small fruit with large fruit being very limited. Overall demand on large fruit will continue to strengthen with offshore import supplies phasing out, as MX and CA crops are peaking on small sized fruit. Import lemons are also subjected to potential port delays.
Grapefruit:
South African import markets are elevated as California ended early due to quality and low utilization. Available supply will continue to remain tight pending port strike outcomes until Florida’s season starts. Florida grapefruit is projected to start mid-October and Texas will follow in November.
California clementines are projected to start early to mid November. Overall volume is expected to be up from last year with sizing peaking on 28 count.
Grapes
With more than 40 million boxes already packed this year, the California season estimate continues to drop with all indicators pointing to a crop of just over 80 million total boxes, down from the projected 92 million. Despite reduced volumes and higher FOB costs, retailers seem to be remaining profitable, with consumers seeming to support higher overall retails. At the current pace of shipments, the industry “should” have enough fruit to get us into December.
Honeydew
We are seeing steady honeydew markets and volumes out of the Central Valley this week. No major changes this week and continuing to see larger sizing out of the crop.
Limes
Region: Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Update: The weather forecast is showing a high percentage of rain throughout the week. Temperatures will fluctuate between 68 degrees and 89 degrees.
Market Intel: The demand for limes has been steady. Please contact Your Robinson Fresh representative for market updates as it changes daily.
Sizing Profile: Peak sizes are 200/175/230s.
Size distribution: 110-4%, 150-8%, 175-17%, 200-25%, 230-28%, and 250-18%.
Quality: Quality issues being reported include oil spots, blanching, scarring, and skin breakdown.
Looking Ahead: In October, we expect an increase in volume, with an ample supply of medium-sized produce readily available to support the program.
Mangos
First, quality of mango being exported to the U.S. is great, but most growers are having trouble getting to the expected volumes they projected/visualized for the season. Why? This is because of the colder weather and rains that Petrolina, Brazil received during May/June/July. This has created some abortion of fruit on the trees as well as sporadic flowering. Currently, growers are experiencing about a 25%-30% decline on volume compared to last year. They are trying to compensate with other varieties (Palmer/Keitt) to cover their commitments as much as they possibly can, but still they have not been able to cover all. They are expecting to have a bit better volumes these upcoming two weeks, but still overall lower volumes compared to last season. Also, speaking today with personnel from the USDA in Brazil, the USDA along with another Brazilian government entity, have been adding personnel that is tasked specifically to monitor grower compliance with fruit flies at the field level. They are thoroughly checking on this several times a week and they have to report their findings. We have already seen some growers that have had some crops put on hold for 3 weeks due to this. Lastly, there have been delays on vessels every single week and this is expected to continue (domino effect) weekly. This is happening because of demand on other products, such as red meats, that are needing more space on vessels to export and growers are having to pay higher prices to get vessel spots/spaces. Right now, the NEXT two vessels will be shipping close to each other--one shipping on 9/12 for arrival on 9/23, and the other one shipping 9/16 for arrival on 9/27. This will cause waves of fruit coming in close to each other and then nothing for some days, so there will be fruit available, but sporadically, depending on the delays. Please be careful when quoting as markets will fluctuate.
We expect this Brazilian season to be shorter (4-6 weeks) compared to previous seasons. On a positive note, Ecuador is expected to start early this season with healthy volumes focused more on the 10/12 count sizes. First arrivals from Ecuador on red mango are expected into the U.S. by weeks 42-43 (mid-October) with mostly Tommy Atkins variety.
Papaya
SUPPLY IS JUST MEETING DEMAND FOR PAPAYA IN THE U.S. MARKET!
Supply conditions tightened up a bit last week with very little surplus fruit being offered. Small fruit remains even tighter with only large fruit readily available to cover commitments. Prices are higher in the U.S. market with much higher prices on smaller fruit. Crop yields have been affected mainly by the changes in weather with additional rainfall at the fields. Weather conditions in Mexico are reported as MIXED and not favorable for yields. Inventories are showing little to NO availability to offer on top of contracts. Growers continue to secure good quality product to keep up with U.S. demand. Pricing is pointing higher this week.
The majority of sizes are between 6s–9s, with SOME surplus on LARGE calibers.
Quality is reported as good with fruit showing clean skin and little scarring; a bit more speckling was seen on the latest arrivals.
Color 25%- 50% / 12-14 brix at point of shipping. The ideal temperature for Imperial papaya is 48 degrees to avoid quality issues upon receiving.
Crop outlook forecasts conditions as MIXED with tight supply for the next two weeks.
Market Intel: Just enough supply to service demand.
Pears
We are now shipping new-crop Bartletts and red Bartletts out of both Washington State and Oregon. Anjou pears are shipping in very small quantities with a handful of growers at this time. Most of the larger pear growers are actually still waiting for the fruit to ripen more before they begin their harvest. Bosc pears are expected to start out of the Northwest in the next week or so as well. Overall, the pear crop will be very short this year will all varieties being down from 30% to 50%; we won’t have the final totals until the crop is finished harvesting around November 1st. Expect the prices to be much higher than previous years but quality should be good.
Pineapple
Availability: Supply NOT Meeting Demand in U.S. Market
Growing regions: Some fruit out of MEXICO is being reported as mixed batches and mostly small fruit. The summer gap has stretched deep into September, and it is expected to now end late-September to early-October. Most fruit harvested in Mexico continues to stay in the country and is being sold at internal markets with good overall prices. Weather at the pineapple fields is unchanged with fruit lacking the conditions to gain size or meet export quality. Transportation out of Mexico is stable with good availability of trucks to service pineapple shippers. COSTA RICA’s availability is iproving slightly on small fruit but with very little available on 5/6/7-caliber fruit. There is good quality on fruit being exported but the main issue remains size. Shortage of large fruit has not changed and, as per the latest forecast, it will be ongoing for the remainder of this season. Markets will remain high for the next few weeks with NO significant surplus expected.
• Mexican fruit quality is marginal with little to NO fruit meeting U.S. specifications. Prices are high on all counts out of Mexico and Costa Rica. COSTA RICA’s volume remains low AT PACKING with the expectation of improvement only on smaller counts. NO surplus fruit is available to pack currently. The U.S. market remains high on all counts with supply NOT meeting demand. Costa Rica is under mostly rainy conditions in the northern region.
• Movement: The USDA is showing a low number of pineapple loads crossing last week with only 887 containers reported FROM Costa Rica for the entire continental U.S. It continues to be a very low number for this time of year.
• Forecast: Some surplus fruit is currently being offered at shipping points by large grower/shippers. The market is high with good demand and slightly lower prices this week.
Strawberries
Several growing areas are being harvested in California and Baja, Mexico, with Oxnard, California, and Central Mexico slated to bring in consistent volume in the coming weeks. Strawberries in Salinas/Watsonville are past their peak production, with harvest volumes decreasing weekly, while Santa Maria’s fall crop is producing regularly. The plants in Salinas/Watsonville are tired and the fruit is showing more quality issues, smaller sizes, and limited shelf life than other areas. Santa Maria does have occasional bruising, white shoulders, and larger fruit. Santa Maria for the week of 9/23 is forecast to be partly sunny, with highs in the low-70s and lows in the 50s. The week of 9/30, Santa Maria is forecast to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid- to upper-70s and lows in the 50s. Salinas/Watsonville for the week of 9/23 is forecast for areas of low clouds, giving way to sun. Highs are expected in the 70s, increasing to the low-80s on Friday, then decreasing to the 70s for the weekend, and lows in the 50s. The week of 9/30 is forecast to be partly sunny with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Watermelon
Watermelons are tight on larger size fruit 36- and 45-count seedless fruit. 60 counts have more volume. Delaware and Indiana are picking for another week. The Florida watermelon crop will start the middle of October. Texas, California, and Washington are also going until October. Northern Mexico will start around October 5th.
Organic Fruits & Vegetables
Organic Apples
[email protected]We are now harvesting and shipping new-crop organic Gala, organic Honeycrisp, organic Fuji, and organic Granny Smith. We also still have limited supplies of organic Pink Lady available from last season’s crop. The organic crop looks to be a little smaller than last year’s crop but it’s still a very good crop on the trees. We expect to have good supplies all year and prices should be very promotable again for the rest of this year.
Organic Dry Vegetables
[email protected]We have seen a very tight market for the most part on dry vegetable items over the last month. We continue to see shortages on any given day. We are starting to see a few colored peppers coming out of Nogales but not much else to load with them. We continue to see cucumbers and yellow squash available out of San Diego and out of the Salinas Valley. By the end of September, we should see more items out of Nogales and more trucks there to load for you.
Organic Melons
[email protected]Organic minis will go another week out of Patterson, California. Then, we will start Northern Mexico the first week in October.
Organic Onions
[email protected]The organic onion market remains strong. Red onions are still on the tight side of supply and the market remains firm on pricing. We are in full swing now with yellow onions this week and will be able to ship red and yellow onions from the same shed. The market on yellow onions is a little soft and pricing is a little more flexible. The quality of the onions is very nice. Our shallot program has come a few weeks early this season and we are shipping out 20-pound boxes and 4-/5-pound bags. The market is strong right now as supply is still light.
Organic Pears
[email protected]We are now shipping new-crop organic Bartletts out of Washington State. We will follow with new-crop organic Bosc and organic Anjou in the next week or so. Overall, the organic pear crop will be down 30%-50%, depending on the variety. Expect prices to be much higher than in previous years but quality to remain very good.
Organic Potatoes
[email protected]The organic potato market is going strong! There is good supply coming out of Washington with russets, reds, and yellows looking good. There are also fingerlings available now. The quality is looking very good with color and netting on the russets. We are starting to see a few potatoes becoming available out of Canada and Wisconsin in a small way. That will increase over the next month. Colorado started a few red and yellow potatoes as well, and their russet programs will start by mid-October.
Organic Squash
[email protected]Our hard squash program is in full swing now. We currently are shipping Butternut, Spaghetti, Acorn, Delicata, Kabocha, Red Kuri, and Carnival. Quality has been outstanding so far this season and supply is good. We will start to have Honeynut squash the week of October 1st.
Organic Sweet Potatoes
[email protected]Sweet potato growers out of California have finished up the old crop and have moved on to new crop at this point. Quality is looking very nice from what we can see so far on the harvested sweets. The harvesting will continue through October so supply will increase. New crop pricing is strong with per-case increases across all varieties. It is time to start thinking about your fall promotions, so give us a call to assist.
Transportation
Refrigerated Truckload
Produce season is well past its peak in the Southern states, although harvesting in Northern states is now in effect for several commodities. This seasonal trend results in a loosening of capacity from the Southern states while the Pacific Northwest, Mid-North and Great Lakes experience a tightening of capacity during this time. Typically, the Northeastern states tighten through August and September, but so far this year the impact there has been mild.
Western United States
The West Coast hit its peak produce season at the end of June and beginning of July, which follows the typical seasonal cycle. This has since seen dwindling demand and associated costs. Inbound Arizona and Pacific Northwest freight has seen an increase in costs since backhauls from these regions are not as readily available.
Central United States
The Mid-South market continues to soften, with capacity readily available. Produce season has shifted from the Mid-South into the Midwest and Mid-North. Expect the Mid-North to continue to see more tightening in the upcoming month.
Eastern United States
Southeast demand has retracted after its seasonal peak. We are now seeing normal Q3 seasonality with abundant capacity. The Northeast has tightened since early July, and we expect this to continue through the rest of the quarter. Same-day coverage does pose capacity challenges; so, to mitigate those premiums, provide sufficient lead time.
Work with your C.H. Robinson team to stay informed on regionalized opportunities and how to best schedule freight to capitalize on the best price and service.
GLOBAL UPDATES
OCEAN CARRIER CONSOLIDATION - Fresh produce growers and shippers attempting to move cargo globally via ocean vessels are dealing with scenarios where ocean carriers genuinely dictate some markets. They dictate and determine the marketability and viability of export markets for many fresh produce exporters. Shippers are being forced to commit earlier to ocean lines to reserve space for upcoming seasons, and spot market space on vessels is nearly impossible to secure.
RED SEA SHIPPING CRISIS – The total capacity of ocean containers has grown by 10% in the past 12 months, yet much capacity was absorbed by re-routing the Red Sea and Asia port congestion in the recent months. Hundreds of ships are currently diverting around Africa to avoid attacks in the Red Sea, causing delays to global trade and inflicting months of disruption and imminent price rises on supplies. Crisis has led to doubling insurance costs and soaring demands for security services, which have raised prices and affected availability of fresh produce from Africa and Australia.
DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Shippers negotiating with ocean carriers or freight forwarders on perishable cargo contracts should request as much free time at destination as possible to reduce the risk of detention/demurrage charges when inspections/fumigations or drayage capacity constraints delay cargo delivery at destination. Unavoidable and unprecedented demurrage and detention charges due to delays in turning cargo at destination continue in 2024.
For more global freight insights please visit Global Freight Markets Insights | C.H. Robinson (https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/global-forwarding-insights/)
Floral
Product availability out of Ecuador is on the tight side due to weather and slow production. Colombia is fine at the moment. Air capacity is good out of Ecuador, and it is still recovering in Colombia from protest issues; it is starting to stabilize.