Produce Trends Continue to Improve
- Produce dollars grew nominally at +0.1% over the last four weeks with volume also up to the prior year at +0.8%
- Year to date, volume has only seen slight decline (-0.6%) and dollars have seen +1.6% growth
- Total edible store is still seeing the impacts of inflation, but also seeing signs of easing over the last 4 weeks
![Bar graph of 2023 YTD of produce by dollars and pounds.](/en//-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-2.png)
Regional Performance YTD (32 weeks)1
Although seven of the eight regions are growing dollars YTD, only three of those regions are showing volume growth.
![Map of the United States and a table with regional breakdown of dollar share of produce and percent change vs. 2022 and volume percent change vs. 2022.](/-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-3.png?h=254&w=800)
Top 10 Fruit and Vegetables in $1
- YTD berries, tomatoes, and onions are the only commodities in the Top 10 that are growing in both dollars & volume
- Higher register items like salad kits have been slow to recover
![Bar graph of different produce by dollar sales.](/en//-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-4.png)
The Grocery Shopper of Tomorrow4
- Gen X and Boomers continue to have the most buying power, with more disposable income
- Millennials, however, could drive trends going forward as they grow their families and increase retail grocery spend
- Over the last 52 weeks, Millennial HHs increased by 2%, while their total dollars spent grew at +8.1%
![Bar graph of HH distribution by age, kids under 18 and annual grocery spend.](/en//-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-5.png)
Understanding Shopper Base and Channel Shifts in Inflationary Times4
- Walmart continues to win across the board with consumers trips leaking to value channels
- Clubs are now capturing some of the lower income dollars sales as the shopper base becoming more diverse, but higher income shoppers make up the lion’s share of their base
- Food Lion has started to grow its higher income shopper base, pulling shoppers from local competitors
![Table showing different accounts and sales for lower income, middle income, and upper income.](/en//-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-6.png)
Inflation Update1
- YTD, Produce is trending at 2.3% thru 32 weeks. Fruits came in at +0.6%, while vegetables came in higher at 4.0%.
- Over the last 4 weeks, inflation was down in produce (0.6%) driven by fruits being down (2.4%)
![Table showing price per volume and percent change vs. 2022 and 2021.](/en//-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-7.png)
Others Still Feeling Effects of Inflation1
Traffic is often determined by total basket spend, which causes multi-store shopping and channel shifting
![Tables showing total edible, produce, general food, deli, refrigerated, beverages, and frozen broken down by sales, volume, and price.](/en//-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-8.png)
Commodity Spotlight: Grapes
Grapes are the third largest segment in the Fruit Category with nearly $4.0B in sales expected in 2023. Grapes account for almost 10% of all fruit sales with an annual growth rate of 5.1% since 2019.
![Bar graph of dollar sales and another bar graph of seasonality - share of retail sales pounds by week.](/-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-9-together.png?h=576&w=800)
Happy Healthy Halloween!
- Grapes are promoted heavily during Halloween
- Utilizing Welch’s Halloween themed packaging and POS to create eye catching displays can capture shopper’s attention and build baskets
- Contact your local salesperson for more information
![Two bags of Welch's grapes with Halloween packaging.](/en//-/media/chrfreshglobal/insights/resources/insightstoaction/september-23-insights-to-action/rf-sept-insights-module-10.png)
- Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 8.13.23
- Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 8.13.23
- Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Produce - Calendar Year 2023 Ending 8.13.23, All other Departments thru 7.30.23
- Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, Last 52 Weeks Ending 8.13.23