Freshspective
Tuesday, January 7, 2025 | Issue 160
Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Conventional Vegetables
The asparagus market remains stable, with consistent volumes arriving from Peru. Production in Ica (South Region) has significantly decreased, and most product is now sourced from Trujillo (North Region), where availability is projected to continue through January. In Mexico, our growers are actively preparing the fields for the upcoming Caborca season. We anticipate the season to begin around January 20th, with steady availability expected through the end of April.
Bell Peppers
[email protected]As Florida was starting to get into their groove, weather will start to have an impact in the upcoming weeks. Cooler temperatures in Immokalee and North Florida will slow harvesting. Let’s hope we do not see any freezing temperatures! Nogales continues to see good crossings from Mexico, so we should continue to see steady volume from the west.
Broccoli
[email protected]Cold weather is moving into the Southeast and supplies are tightening there. Texas and California are in good supplies after the holiday.
Cabbage
[email protected]
Between Georgia and Florida, cabbage is in good volume and quality right now in the Southeast. We do have cold weather moving into the Georgia growing area which is slowing ability to harvest. Texas is also experiencing colder temperatures which are slowing maturity there as well.
Celery
[email protected]Celery supplies are steady with good volume available in Oxnard, and the desert growing regions are set to start in mid-January. The weather forecast calls for cooler temperatures with no rain expected in the growing regions. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for updates and information regarding availability and promotions.
Cucumbers
[email protected]Local Florida season is practically done, but Honduran product will continue to arrive until mid-March. Mexico has had steady volume , but we do expect conditions to start changing as the cooler weather will change yields. Expect markets to react in both regions.
Greens
[email protected]Between Georgia and Florida, all flavors of greens are in good volume and quality right now in the Southeast. We do have cold weather moving into the Georgia growing area which is slowing ability to harvest.
Leaf Lettuce
[email protected]Iceberg lettuce, romaine, red and green leaf supplies are plentiful with many growers looking to promote. Quality reports are showing great overall quality and good weights. The weather forecast calls for cooler temperatures with no lettuce ice expected this week. The primary shipping points are Yuma and the Imperial Valley with some availability in Oxnard. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for more details.
Potatoes
[email protected]Still plenty of storage reds and golds available from multiple growing regions; though, we will see availability start to dwindle over the several weeks, especially on yellows. Russets are still abundant in multiple regions. Florida will get started on their crop of reds and golds in about 3-4 weeks for those ready to switch off of storage product.
Squash
[email protected]Although we have been fortunate to have good yields from both regions so far, weather conditions are starting to have a slight impact. Florida typically is not a major player during this period; with the cooler weather, the volume will decrease. We also predict that the cool temperatures in Mexico will begin to slow things down as well. Stay away from any promotions for the next two weeks.
Sweet Corn
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Conventional Fruits
Apples
As the new year starts, product continues to move at a rapid pace. The overall crop is a good one with estimates around 129 million total cases. Although this is smaller than last year’s crop of approximately 136 million, it’s still considered a larger-than-normal crop. Due to the good growing conditions this season, we’ve had reportedly good-quality fruit again this year. Most varieties, with a few exceptions, were down a little from last season, but we do have one important crop that was down significantly from last year. The conventional Honeycrisp crop is now reported to be down over 30% compared to last year’s crop, resulting in higher prices this season. The organic Honeycrisp are even worse, down over 40% this season. Expect the Honeycrisp prices to remain high and continue to rise in 2025. Other items that are tighter this week include bagged Granny Smith, large Fuji and large Gala. There is one variety that we have a larger crop than last season and that is the newer Cosmic Crisp variety. The crop is up over 20% from last season and we expect good promotional opportunities to be available on the conventional and organic Comics for this year and next. Overall, we still have good supplies of apples to sell and expect attractive pricing on most varieties. Apples will remain a good category to promote for the next several months with a predictable supply of high-quality fruit.
Avocados
Grower origins with fruit in the USA market this week into next week.
Mexico total containers imported last week: 749
• Supply was affected by a slow start to harvesting after the holiday weeks.
• Size curve is mainly 48s and smaller; the U.S. market has several retailers moving to smaller fruit being promoted.
• The Aventajada harvest is going its course.
• Percentage of #2 fruit has increased as well as Mexico is shipping excess fruit into the domestic market and non-traditional export countries in Central America.
Market Share %:
1. California 0%
2. Peru 0%
3. Chile .1%
4. Dominican Rep .4%
5. Colombia 2.2%
Blueberries:
Looking to see an increase in demand for the month of January. Volume will be steady on arrivals the next two-three weeks.
• Peruvian shipments have finally taken a downturn. Sekoyas are in four phases that will prune quarterly and ship throughout the year. In other fields, we have made the decision to prune for earlier arrivals next year.
• Chilean Legacy damaged by heat in main growing areas in Chile. This will likely affect February arrivals. Southern fruit will probably be in higher demand. We are seeing container (the actual container) shortages in Chile, and a lack of boats leaving due to the impending strike.
• Mexico Sekoyas are starting with heavy volumes, and not affected by any port strikes.
• Florida is around a month to five weeks away.
• We faced mostly inconveniences and delays through the holidays. Quality has improved and volumes are steady.
• Cooler weather is slowing down a little, but the largest effects were over the holidays. Crossings and shipments should get back to a regular uninterrupted schedule.
• Organics have steadied off as well.
Cantaloupe
The current offshore cantaloupes are in a demand-exceeds-supply position. The Zacapa region of Guatemala was one of the most affected regions by Hurricane Sara and experienced up to 40-50% yield losses. This region is wrapping up harvest and Honduran imports have started in a light way. Expect supply to remain tight until mid- to late-February when the next region of Guatemala kicks into harvest.
Citrus
Oranges: California continues to have good availability and quality on navel oranges. Crop is heavy to smaller sized fruit but availability on 72 count is now more abundant. Fruit is naturally colored with great quality and brix ranging from 13-15. California Cara Cara crop is peaking on 88/113/138 counts. Quality and volume are strong. Blood oranges are available, with mostly smaller sizes available, 113/138 counts. Minneolas have started in a small way with the crop peaking on 100/125 counts. Large fruit will be more limited this season across the board on California citrus commodities. Florida juice oranges should be available until Valencias start at the end of this month, making for a smooth transition.
Mandarins: Import Moroccan clementines are readily available on the East Coast with early-season varieties. Sizing is peaking on 2s and 3s. The first arrivals of Nadorcotts will hit the ports this week and should be available through April. California mandarins are coming into more volume and good availability. Currently, the Clemenule variety is available transitioning, with Pages and Leanri varieties now being harvested. Tangos are expected to start at the end of January, followed by Murcotts in the spring. Overall volume for the season is up from last year, with sizing peaking on 28 count. Florida tangerines are available, peaking on 120/150 counts. Florida mandarins also available, with the crop heavier to small sizes as well.
Grapes
As we enter the new year, we will see some challenges in January that could persist into February on import grapes. The main concern this month is with a possible port strike off the East Coast that has been lingering since November. With the impending ILA port strike scheduled for January 16th, fruit exporters from South America have been actively searching for alternative non-ILA ports to continue supplying a strong U.S. market. Many table grape exporters from Peru could start sending containers to California, Texas, and Florida, as a plan B. For now, the open markets remain limited on both coasts, especially on greens. This will shift, however, as we enter mid- to late-January and arrivals shift from mostly red to mostly green; thus, driving up the red market. Expect spot markets to remain at current levels until more clarity around the strike becomes available.
Honeydew
Offshore honeydews are in the same position as cantaloupes with demand exceeding supply. There are significant yield losses in Guatemala and Honduran imports are just starting. As far as Mexican honeydews go, supply is extremely tight with many shippers gapping. We should start to see some light availability on honeydews within the next 1-2 weeks with our Robinson Fresh honeydew grower out of Southern Mexico beginning harvest.
Limes
Region: Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Update: The upcoming week’s weather suggests several days of rain, with temperatures fluctuating between 52°F and 76°F.
Market Intel: The demand for limes has been steady.
Sizing Profile: Peak sizes are 175/150/200s. Size distribution: 110-13%, 150-21%, 175-27%, 200-21%, 230-13%, and 250-5%.
Quality: Quality issues being reported: oil spots, blanching, scarring, and skin breakdown.
Looking Ahead: As mentioned earlier, a slight decrease in volume is expected each week in February, but we anticipate a steady and reliable supply throughout the month. The new harvest will continue to deliver fruit in small and medium sizes, which are perfectly suited to the needs of our programs. Looking ahead, the winter season is always lower in volume, but the various partnerships and different harvest areas in the state will allow us to maintain quality and stability in our operations.
Mangos
• We are expecting Peru to have a good season this year with plenty of volume (around 25 million boxes this year alone). It is expected Peru will have smaller sizes at the beginning of the season compared to others as there has been a water shortage in the country with water needed for the size of the mangos to increase. This is causing crops to be mainly concentrated on the 9/10/12-count sizes. The season will be dependent on rains or a better water situation for the size of the fruit to increase. The expectation for the Peruvian mango season is for it to go up until the second week of February, packing from Peru. This means arrivals early in March.
• Quality of the fruit being harvested remains constant in quality and condition, with great arrivals to all U.S. ports of entry. Good internal and external color and good pressures as well.
• Same as Ecuador, Peru is having vessel problems and availability. We expect most of the shipments to go to the East Coast as there is more availability there. We are also hearing that there is a carton shortage in the industry for new orders placed to the carton company due to overcommitments from the carton company, as well as other commodities such as grapes and berries that are still in their seasons. This shortage is expected to get better starting January 2025; in the meantime, shippers are looking at having to ship generic carton that are available. Also, it is being said that there is a possibility of another union strike at East Coast ports starting January 15th. We will keep monitoring this day by day to keep everyone informed. We are looking at alternatives to bring product into the U.S. now in case this strike does happen (for example, ports with no union labor and West Coast ports).
• We will also be seeing organic mangos coming in on our 4-kilogram box this season to both the West and East Coasts.
• Crop outlook in Peru is about 50% large sizes (6-9 counts), followed by 50% small sizes (10/12 counts).
• Current weather conditions in Tambo Grande, Peru are in the high-80s to high-60s.
Papaya
Supply meeting demand for papaya in the U.S. market.
- Supply conditions are improving slowly out of Mexico. Contracts are being serviced with some surplus fruit to offer. Prices are stable after coming down from extremely high prices in the U.S. market in December. Growers are concerned that crop yields will be affected by the cold weather, keeping fruit from gaining size. Weather in Mexico is not favorable for improving yields. Inventories are showing little availability to offer.
- Majority of sizes are between 6s–12s with some surplus fruit.
- Quality is reported as marginal with fruit showing less speckling and some scarring.
- Color 25%- 50%/12-14 brix at point of shipping. Ideal temperature for shipping Imperial papaya is 48 degrees to avoid quality issues upon receiving.
- Crop outlook: Forecast has conditions as tight supply for the next two weeks.
- Market Intel: Enough supply to service demand.
Pears
We are now shipping Bartletts, Anjou, Bosc, and red pears out of Washington and Oregon. Overall, the pear crop will be very short this year, with all varieties being down 30% to 50%. The good news is that the remaining fruit will be of good quality and is eating well this year. Due to the short crop, expect prices to be much higher than in previous years and for supplies to remain tight for the foreseeable future.
Pineapple
Availability: Supply Meeting Demand in U.S. Market!
Growing regions: MEXICO - Some volume of fruit crossing out of Mexico this week, but most fruit has been kept in the country to be sold at internal markets with good prices. Weather at the pineapple fields is keeping yields low but with better overall quality and good brix. Transportation out of Mexico is stable with good availability of trucks to service pineapple shippers. COSTA RICA - Supply is stable but with not much surplus at the packing plants. Availability is still low with tight volume on all sizes but most significantly on larges. Good-quality fruit is being exported to the U.S. and Europe. Market is stable but expected to increase with less availability to service demand. NO significant surplus expected to happen, and prices will likely increase.
Quality: Mexican fruit quality is GOOD with better condition overall. Prices are high on all counts out of Mexico and Costa Rica. COSTA RICA - Volume struggling AT PACKING with expectation to remain tight for the next 4 weeks. NO surplus fruit available to pack on large or small counts at this time. The U.S. market is stable on all counts. Costa Rica is under mixed weather conditions in the northern region.
Movement: The USDA is not reporting volume crossing currently.
Forecast: Some surplus fruit is being offered at U.S. shipping points by large grower/shippers at this time. Market is stable with similar prices this week versus last week.
Strawberries
Central Mexico has steady supplies while Santa Maria and Oxnard, California growing areas have more limited supplies while they work through some older fields and new-crop production is just starting. Florida has heavy inventory with both product with some aged and fresher fruit available. Baja California has improved production. California fruit quality is improving, with better color and firmer fruit. Mexican fruit is good quality.
Weather Outlook:
California - Santa Maria, California for the week of 1/6 is forecast to be mostly sunny. Highs are expected in the 60s and lows in the 30s. The week of 1/13 is forecast to be mostly sunny, becoming mostly cloudy Friday, partly cloudy Saturday, and mostly sunny on Sunday. Highs are forecast in the 60s and lows in the 30s.
Oxnard for the week of 1/6 is forecast on Wednesday to be partly sunny and windy, and sunny the balance of the week. Highs are expected in the 60s and lows in the 40s. The week of 1/13 is forecast to be sunny, becoming mostly cloudy on Friday, and partly sunny for the weekend. Highs are expected in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
Mexico - Central Mexico for the week of 1/6 is forecast for clouds followed by sun on Wednesday and Thursday, cloudy Friday, and then mostly sunny for the weekend. Highs are expected in the 70s and lows in the 50s. For the week of 1/13, the forecast is for Monday to be partly cloudy, Tuesday and Wednesday cloudy with an occasional thunderstorm, and the balance of the week intervals of clouds and sun. Highs are forecast in the 70s, increasing to the 80s Thursday through Saturday, then decreasing to the 70s Sunday, and lows in the 40s.
Florida - For the week of 1/6 is forecast to be sunny, then becoming cloudy with rain on Saturday, and then sunny on Sunday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected in the 60s increasing to the 70"s Friday and Saturday, and then decreasing to the 60s on Sunday, and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, increasing to the 60s on Friday, and decreasing to the 40s for the weekend. For the week of 1/13, it is forecast on Monday and Tuesday to be sunny, Wednesday cloudy with afternoon showers, and then Thursday through the weekend to be mostly sunny. Highs are expected in the 60s, increasing to the 70s Friday through the weekend, and lows in the 40s, increasing to the low 50s Friday through the weekend.
Watermelon
Watermelons are a little tight. Nogales and Texas are getting better volume from Southern Mexico. We have good supplies on mini 8/9 counts right now shipping out of Nogales, Arizona. Offshore is going with limited production. We will start in Yucatan, Mexico in 3 to 4 weeks.
Organic Fruits & Vegetables
Organic Apples
[email protected]We are shipping new crop on all organic varieties. Overall, the organic apple crop will be smaller than last season. The organic Honeycrisp will be much shorter than last season and is expected to be down over 40%. Expect to see higher prices and for Honeycrisp volume to remain tight. The organic Granny crop is also a little short and we expect to see prices climb as we get deeper into 2025. The organic Gala looks to be very similar to last season and the organic Pink Lady crop is up from last season and should be promotable in 2025.
Organic Dry Vegetables
[email protected]Nogales dry vegetables are finally going strong! We are now seeing many varieties and sizing. As we get further into January, we should see even more supply coming across the border.
Organic Onions
[email protected]As we start the new year, we are seeing a little movement in the onion market. Supplies of red onions seem to be tightening. The market has moved up over the last week. The yellow onion market has not reacted the same way and has held steady. Quality is very nice out of the Northwest and from our grower in Hollister, California. The sweet onion market is steady as well, and supplies seem to be good.
Organic Pears
[email protected]We are now shipping new crop organic Bartletts, organic Anjou, and organic Bosc this week. Overall, the organic pear crop will be down 30%-50%, depending on the variety. Expect prices to be much higher than previous years, but quality remains very good.
Organic Potatoes
[email protected]We are in the middle of POTATO season. Quality out of the Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and other locations is very good. Shippers are looking to promote and are willing to give some advance pricing if need be. We should not see much change in this situation for at least 2 to 3 more months.
Organic Squash
[email protected]Winter squash is in full swing at this point coming out of Mexico and is available to load out of Nogales. Our California squash program (Tobias Farms) has gone very well this season. We are down to butternut, spaghetti, Delicata, and Carnival. We should have supply through December.
Organic Sweet Potatoes
[email protected]The theme of the week is “full swing.” Sweet potatoes are going strong and every variety and size is available right now. Quality out of the Livingston, California area is great! Pricing has come down some from the highs of October but is still pretty strong.
Transportation
Western United States
The West Coast produce industry experienced its usual seasonal transition in November, with shippers moving operations from Salinas Valley to Yuma, Arizona, where activity will remain through April. This shift has led to increased volumes in the region, driving up spot market rates and volumes. California-based markets, however, have largely stabilized and returned to pre-holiday rate levels, with expectations for rates to remain flat through the remainder of Q1 2025.
Eastern United States
The East Coast market continues to follow typical seasonal trends, remaining relatively soft overall. While Florida and Georgia experience a minor produce season during this time, it has minimal impact on the broader market. After settling in early December, market conditions remained stable until recent snowstorms disrupted operations across the region.
Subscribe to our Client Advisories for the most up-to-date information about shifting market conditions. Work with your C.H. Robinson team to stay informed on regionalized opportunities and how to best schedule freight to capitalize on the best price and service.
GLOBAL UPDATES
OCEAN CARRIER CONSOLIDATION - Fresh produce growers and shippers attempting to move cargo globally via ocean vessels are dealing with scenarios where ocean carriers genuinely dictate some markets. They dictate and determine the marketability and viability of export markets for many fresh produce exporters. Shippers are being forced to commit earlier to ocean lines to reserve space for upcoming seasons, and spot market space on vessels is nearly impossible to secure.
RED SEA SHIPPING CRISIS – The total capacity of ocean containers has grown by 10% in the past 12 months, yet much capacity was absorbed by re-routing from the Red Sea and Asia port congestion in recent months. Hundreds of ships are currently diverting around Africa to avoid attacks in the Red Sea, causing delays to global trade and inflicting months of disruption and imminent price rises on supplies. Crisis has led to doubling insurance costs and soaring demands for security services, which has raised prices and affected availability of fresh produce from Africa and Australia.
DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Shippers negotiating with ocean carriers or freight forwarders on perishable cargo contracts should request as much free time at destination as possible to reduce the risk of detention/demurrage charges when inspections/fumigations or drayage capacity constraints delay cargo delivery at destination. Unavoidable and unprecedented demurrage and detention charges due to delays in turning cargo at destination continue into 2025.
CONTAINER SHORTAGE – The ongoing shortage of refrigerated ocean containers is significantly affecting shipments from Latin America (LATAM) to the USA. This issue stems from a combination of seasonal demand and global logistics disruptions. An imbalance in container availability, compounded by extended transit times and port congestion, is leading to delays and rising shipping costs. Most ocean carriers have responded by imposing elevated peak season surcharges. Addressing this issue requires coordinated efforts to improve container availability and streamline logistics processes.
POSSIBLE U.S. PORT STRIKE - With less than a month remaining before the International Longshoremen’s Association’s (ILA) contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance expires, concerns about a potential strike at East and Gulf Coast ports are growing. President-elect Trump recently expressed support for the ILA’s stance against port automation, which has added to the uncertainty. In response, shippers are being advised to collect their loaded containers and return empty ones at these ports before January 15th, to minimize disruption risks. Recently, Hapag-Lloyd announced surcharges for imports from several countries starting January 20, 2025, in anticipation of potential labor disruptions.
For more global freight insights please visit Global Freight Markets Insights | C.H. Robinson.