Heading into the fourth quarter of 2024, the produce department continues to see positive trends in dollars and volume sold as well as regressing inflation year to date.
- Thru 36 weeks, produce dollar sales are trending up 3.2% vs. last year, while volume is now growing +3.3%.
- Seasonal lifts accelerated fruit performance through the summer, helping the category grow + 4.8% in dollars and 3.9% in volume year to date. Vegetables are still trending at a slower pace with +1.6% dollar sales and +2.8% volume growth.
- Demand for vegetables will pick up in Q4 with the winter holidays. October to December are the only months where vegetable demand outpaces fruit.
Regional performance YTD (36 weeks)1
The Southeast and Midsouth regions continue impressive trends in dollars and lbs.
Top 10 fruits & vegetables YTD1
Commodity spotlight: Hot peppers
Sizzling growth in the pepper aisle! Hot peppers are turning up the heat in the produce section, emerging as the fastest growing subsegment of the peppers category. Over the past four years, dollar sales have surged by an impressive 12.2% on average, while volume sales have climbed nearly 7%3. This fiery trend shows no signs of cooling down!
Availability helps steer the shopper journey
The concept of “availability” holds a distinct meaning for retail partners and shoppers.
What retail partners say:
Every step of the supply chain impacts the availability of a product on shelf.
Post-harvest/pre-loading is the most important node where information and visibility is needed in the supply chain, according to the retail partners surveyed. Half of respondents also listed in-store as another area where information and visibility are needed.
Inbound transportation costs and inventory management are top aspects of the supply chain that concern them.
What shoppers say: When produce items shoppers routinely purchase are out of stock, respondents noted they are more likely to visit a different retailer vs. purchasing a substitute item. It is rare that respondents revisit the same retailer.
About the Sentiment Survey
In 2024, Robinson Fresh surveyed retail partners to gain deeper insights into their priorities and challenges. This feedback was used to shape a comprehensive consumer sentiment survey. A third-party research firm was used to survey 2,000 consumers regarding their shopping habits. Respondents were geographically and demographically representative of the total U.S. population. To participate, the consumer needed to have purchased fresh produce during the previous two months.
Opportunities to maximize sales during Thanksgiving
Retailers should focus on helping shoppers create that special meal occasion for Thanksgiving
Theme displays: Maximize sales by building large holiday-related displays and place incremental points of interruption to cross merchandise meal ingredients and sides.
Basket building: Highlight in-store promotions on Thanksgiving staples like potatoes, onions, and pineapples. Additionally, incorporate key seasonal items such as sweet potatoes, greens, and cranberries in ads and displays.
Value-added: Demand is high for value-added/packaged vegetables in commodities like asparagus, greens, beans, and Brussels sprouts. These also do well in ecommerce, where consumers often prefer packaged offerings.
In-store and ecommerce activation and messaging: Leverage both channels to effectively cater to customers’ needs and preferences by offering exclusives, online discounts, or bundles.
- Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 09/08/2024
- Circana Integrated Fresh Scan Data thru 09/08/2024
- Circana Integrated Fresh Scan Data thru 08/11/2024
- Circana Integrated Fresh Scan : Total US MULO, Two weeks to include pre-holiday Thanksgiving 2023, *LBs >= 10,000,0005 Circana CREST® U.S. Q1 = JFM, Q2 = AMJ, Q3 = JAS, Q4, OND