January 2024 - Insights to Action

Shopper behaviors shifted in 2023

  • The produce category demand improved with exiting of inflationary pressure; finishing with lbs. near flat, while dollar sales grew +1.5%
  • Fruit finished with +1.7% dollar sales and +0.4% lbs. growth, while vegetables came in at +1.2% in dollars and down (0.7%) in lbs

 

Bar graph showing 2023 fruit, vegetables, produce, and edible broken down by dollars and pounds.

 

Regional performance YTD (Full Year 2023)1

The Southeast and Mid-South lead the regional rankings, while California underperformed vs the rest of the country.

 

Chart showing each region in the United States and broken down by dollar share of produce, percent change vs 2022, and volume percent change vs 2022.

 

Top 10 fruit and vegetables $1

  • Berries and melons lead the fruit category, while many inelastic vegetable commodities were resilient in the inflationary environment
  • Higher register ring items like salad kits continue to struggle as consumers trade down in the produce category

 

Bar graph showing the top ten fruit and vegetable dollars.

 

Shoppers are engaged, butstill paying more for less2

L52Weeks

  • Produce buyers continue to make more trips, spending more dollars per trip, but are still walking away with less volume than they were a year ago2
  • Increased store traffic, paired with a value mindset, have forced traditional food retailers to promote more in order to help minimize share of wallet leakage (see below)

 

Results of volume per trip, dollars per trip, dollars per buyer, and trips per buyer.

 

In 2023, dollars shift from traditional grocery2

Although still the largest channel of produce, traditional grocery continues to lose share of the market to more “price focused” retailers (Discount Grocery, Walmart, and Club) as consumers feel inflationary pressure2

 

Chart and bar graph of dollar share of 2023 produce for each grocery store.

 

Produce channel shifts2

2023 vs 2019

Pie chart of each channel and their dollar share vs 2019.

 

Inflation update1

  • Inflation has eased within the produce category, but prices are still elevated vs 2021
  • Promotional strategies must incorporate the increased cost of goods and subsequent “new” base price norms

 

Table showing price per volume, percent change vs 2022, and percent change vs 2021.

 

eCommerce is 5x larger than in 2018

  • eCommerce has established itself at a 2.5 pt $ share of produce sales
  • Momentum in this channel has leveled off, but significant investments in the marketplace continue

 

Bar graphs showing dollar sales and top ten.

 

Upcoming occasions lead to large lifts

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Promotional period: January 28 – February 11, 2024

Top impacted commodities: Avocados, Limes, Tomatoes, Berries, Onions

  • A healthier eating focus pushes fruits and vegetables to a front-row seat for game-day celebrations
  • Promote avocados with mangos, onions, and tomatoes with guacamole recipe online and merchandise with corn chips and salsa
  • Other items such as tomatoes, onions, cilantro, carrots, and celery are in high demand either as ingredients or stand-alone snacking items
Valentine's Day

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Promotional period: February 1 – February 13, 2024

Top impacted commodities: Strawberries, Grapes, Watermelon, Citrus

  • Make sure your Valentine’s Day is packed with the right type of sweetness by eating some heart-healthy red fruit such as strawberries, grapes, and cherries.
  • Healthy squeeze citrus display
  • Promote berries as heart healthy antioxidants in your Valentine’s produce plans

  1. Circana Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 12.31.23
  2. Circana Panel Data, Total US- all outlets, Calendar Year 2023 Ending 12.31.23