Freshspective
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 | Issue 157
Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Conventional Vegetables
Regional Volume Update
Mexico: Volume is still under projections. Weather continues to put pressure on the crops, and it seems this will keep volume low for product crossing next week as well.
Peru: Both regions continue to have availability and are projected to maintain it for the next couple of weeks. Keep in mind that December marks the start of the decline in volume for the south region, so pricing is expected to rise as only the north region will be producing in the latter part of December and into January.
Market Update
The market is already adjusting on both coasts for the increased demand for the holidays. Everything remains in line with expectations previously communicated.
For more information on programs, advance pricing, and promotions, please contact your Robinson Fresh representative.
Bell Peppers
[email protected]Markets are reacting as Mexico is having less volume due to the cold weather and bacterial disease. We are also transitioning regions, so this is just adding to the overall shortage. Georgia’s volume has also been impacted by the cooler temperatures. Florida has been a savior with the volume they are currently harvesting.
Broccoli
[email protected]Light rain in the Salinas Valley is increasing disease pressure as the harvest wraps up. Production in the Huron region is nearly complete, shifting the focus to the Southwestern Desert regions. In Yuma, harvests are gaining momentum, however, cooler temperatures and strong winds have slowed growth rates on many items, as expected. With cooler temperatures expected into next week, we are looking at a possible extended period of light production. Overall, supplies are expected to remain light with reduced texture and shelf life through November. Production in the Southeast is currently limited due to weather and is expected to be in better supplies in a week to 10 days.
Cabbage
Cabbage is finishing in the Midwest. Production will start to ramp up over the next 7 to 10 days in Georgia and the Southeast.
Celery supplies are steady with availability in Santa Maria and Oxnard. The weather forecast calls for slightly cooler temperatures with a chance of rain the end of this week. Demand is higher due to the Thanksgiving holiday next week. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for updates and information regarding availability and promotions.
Cucumbers
[email protected]Production has been good, and the product is readily available in Nogales and Florida. We do expect volume to react some in Nogales as the domestic Mexican market is seeing good demand. Florida is harvesting consistent volume but no major volume to be had. We need to remember that Florida is still not 100% at running on all cylinders.
Greens
[email protected]All varieties of greens are in good supply and quality in Georgia for any of your remaining Thanksgiving needs. Light supplies of greens are still available in the Midwest and Northeast as well.
Leaf Lettuce
[email protected]Iceberg lettuce supplies are very limited this week as the first fields in the Yuma growing region have been slow to develop, impacted by hotter weather in the early growth stages. Romaine is showing some seeder and supplies are improving. Red and green leaf supplies are meeting demand. The weather forecast calls for average temperatures this week with no rain. The primary shipping point is Yuma, Arizona, and there are some supplies available in Oxnard, California. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for more details.
Potatoes
[email protected]We are at the end of shipping for the Thanksgiving holiday and sheds are packing at full bore. We will see demand drop off by the beginning of next week. No major changes in the market and quality is still excellent from all growing areas.
Squash
[email protected]Markets are reacting as Mexico is having less volume due to the cold weather and bacterial disease. We are also transitioning regions, so this is just adding to the overall shortage. Georgia’s volume has also been impacted by the cooler temperatures. Florida has been a savior with the volume they are currently harvesting. No volume from Florida to support the overall demand.
Sweet Corn
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Conventional Fruits
Apples
We have now completed the harvest in Washington State. We had good weather for most of the harvest and we managed to avoid any significant damage to the crop. The new crop looks good with estimates of around 123 million cases this year. Although this is smaller than last year’s crop of approximately 136 million, it’s still shaping up to be a good season. Due to the good growing conditions this season, the report from the growers is that fruit quality will be very good again this year. Most varieties, with a few exceptions, were down a little from last season, but we do have one important crop that was down significantly from last year. The conventional Honeycrisp crop is now reported to be down over 30% compared to last year’s crop, resulting in higher prices this season. The organic Honeycrisp are even worse with this crop being down over 40% this season. Expect the Honeycrisp prices to remain high and rise as we get later in the year. Other items that are tighter this week include bagged Granny Smith, large Fuji and large Gala. There is one variety that we have a larger crop than last season and that is the newer Cosmic Crisp variety. The crop is up over 20% from last season and we expect good promotional opportunities to be available on the conventional and organic Comics for this year and next. Overall, we still have good supplies of apples to sell and expect attractive pricing on most varieties through the remainder of the year. Apples will remain a good category to promote for the next several months with a predictable supply of high-quality fruit.
Avocados
Mexico is providing close to 99% of all the avocado imports into the U.S. based on pounds. The nontraditional size curve may not normalize soon enough for the retail sector to promote larger sizes before the end of the year. How much small fruit can the U.S. consume on a week-to-week basis will determine price stability on those smaller sizes as well as an appetite for future promotional periods. Quality is excellent and volume has been steady into the U.S. from Mexico.
Bush Berries
[email protected]Blueberries:
Market-moving fruit as quality has been great! Should see a seamless transition into Chile & Mexico. Continuing to see heavy arrivals, with volume moving in the market.
o Peruvian peak is looking elongated, with promotions available through February at this point.
o Jumbo quality and size continue to come in with particularly good volumes.
o Organic volumes continue to increase.
Cantaloupe
Cantaloupe supply is very light right now. The Yuma, Arizona, crop will be wrapped up within the week for domestic crop. The offshore cantaloupes have started arriving in Florida in a light way. Most of this supply is servicing contract business with little open market availability. West Coast offshore arrivals will not begin until the first week of December.
Citrus
Oranges: Domestic navels are available out of California. Crop is still peaking on small fruit, 88/113/138 counts, but availability of larger sizes has improved some. Cooler temperatures in the growing regions have helped fruit color up naturally. Most fruit being harvested is now under 48 gassing hours, improving shelf life. Quality is great, with brix ranging from 12-13. Florida juice oranges are available, peaking on 100/125/138 counts. The Hamlin variety should be available through most of January, before Valencias start. Florida navel season will finish in the next few weeks. California Cara Caras started in a small way, with crop peaking on 113/138/88 counts. Caras do not hold up well with longer gassing hours as it greatly reduces shelf life. Availability should improve come December as fruit colors up naturally with cooler nights. Blood oranges are anticipated to start mid-December with a similar sizing profile as navels and Cara Caras. Minneolas are slated to start mid-January.
Mandarins: Import mandarin markets remain steady with the last of the Southern Hemisphere imports ending, seamless with Northern Hemisphere fruit starting. Moroccan Clementines are available with early-season varieties. Sizing is peaking on 2s and 3s. Moroccan Nadorcotts will start in January and should last through mid-April. California Clementines are coming into more volume and good availability. Overall volume for the season is anticipated to be up from last year with sizing peaking on 28 count. Florida tangerines are available, peaking on 120 count. Orri mandarins out of Florida are anticipated to start in December, peaking on 100 count.
Grapes
California growers are running low on green seedless but will have ample red grapes, potentially extending availability through Christmas. Meanwhile, importers on the East Coast have begun receiving fruit from Peru and Brazil and will likely pair green seedless with their own red grape supplies to balance inventories and avoid stockpiling red grapes in cold storage.
Honeydew
Honeydew availability is consistent. Domestic supply in Arizona is done for the season. There is consistent supply arriving in Nogales out of Northern Mexico and there are all sizes available with the bulk of volume trending towards 6 count. Import honeydews out of Guatemala have begun arriving in Florida and are large sizing to start.
Limes
Region: Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Update: The weather forecast for the upcoming week indicates mild showers accompanied by elevated humidity levels. Temperatures are expected to range between 61° F and 90° F, creating a warm and humid environment.
Market Intel: The demand for limes has been steady.
Sizing Profile: Peak sizes are 200/175/230. Size distribution is 110-8%, 150-16%, 175-27%, 200-24%, 230-20%, and 250-5%.
Quality: Quality issues being reported: oil spots, blanching, scarring, and skin breakdown.
Looking Ahead: December is expected to provide a steady supply of fruit, although in slightly smaller quantities compared to November’s harvest. However, the volume will be adequate to meet all program commitments. Moreover, the strong production in November has left some fruit on the trees, enabling additional harvesting to extend into December.
Mangos
Ecuador: Ecuador has already passed their peak harvest/packing for the US. We will start seeing a decline in volume for the upcoming weeks as Ecuador has already transitioned from the Tommy Atkins variety to the Kent/Keitt variety. Also, the last of the Ataulfo variety is being packed this week. With this transition, we will see a size change on the entirety of the mango crop, going from mainly 10/12 counts to now 8/9/10 counts for the reminder of the season. Ecuador as a country is expected to finish their packing season by week 50, meaning arrival to the U.S. week 52. We will continue to see the supply chain disruptions/delays with container for the remainder of the season. Most of the volume now going to the East Coast, with a little to the West Coast which has been the most affected by availability of containers. Quality overall has been good in most cases, with some sunken shoulder and ripe fruit at arrival to the U.S. Now that we are entering the last weeks of the Ecuadorian season, we will have to keep a close eye on quality. Crop outlook in Ecuador is about 70% large sizes (6-9 counts) followed by 30% on small sizes (10/12 counts). Current weather conditions in Guayaquil, Ecuador, are in the high-80s to mid-70s.
Crop outlook in Peru is about 40% large sizes (6-9 counts) followed by 60% on small sizes (10/12 counts). Current weather conditions in Tambo Grande, Peru, are in the high-80s to mid-60s.
Papaya
Supply is not meeting demand for papaya in the USA market. Supply conditions remain the same this week with lower yields and marginal quality affecting papaya in Mexico. Contracts are still being prorated due to the lack of availability and high prices. Prices remain stable after coming down from extremely high prices in the U.S. market. Crop yields continue to be affected by the changes in weather with additional rainfall at the fields and root rot still present. Weather conditions in Mexico are not favorable for improving yields. Inventories showing NO availability to offer. Majority of sizes are between 6–12s with NO surplus fruit. Quality is reported as marginal with fruit showing high speckling and some scarring. Color 25%- 50% / 12-14 brix at point of shipping. The ideal temperature for Imperial papaya is 48 degrees to avoid quality issues upon receiving. Crop outlook: Forecast has conditions of tight supply for the next two weeks. Market Intel: NOT enough supply to service demand. Fruit Condition: Heavier speckling and scarring.
Pears
We are now shipping Bartletts, Anjou, Bosc, and red pears out of Washington and Oregon. Overall, the pear crop will be very short this year, with all varieties being down 30% to 50%. The good news is that the remaining fruit will be of good quality and is eating well this year. Due to the short crop, expect prices to be much higher than in previous years and for supplies to remain tight for the foreseeable future.
Pineapple
Availability: Supply Meeting Demand in U.S. Market!
Growing regions: MEXICO - Little to NO fruit crossing out of Mexico last week with growers still struggling with conditions to meet U.S. specifications. Summer gap continues to stretch into November with little to no available fruit to pack and export. Most fruit harvested will remain in Mexico, being sold at internal markets with good overall prices. Weather at the pineapple fields is affecting the internal quality with lower brix and longer crowns reported. Transportation out of Mexico is stable with good availability of trucks to service pineapple shippers. COSTA RICA - Supply is now stable but with not much surplus at the packing plants. Availability is still on small fruit but with very little available on 5/6-caliber fruit. Good quality on fruit being exported but the main issue remains lack of sizing. Shortage of large fruit has not changed and as per latest forecast, it will continue for the remainder of this season. Market is now stable with lower prices driven by less demand. NO significant surplus expected to happen, and prices will remain lower due to lagging demand.
Quality: Mexican fruit quality is marginal with little to NO fruit meeting U.S. specifications. Prices are high on all counts out of Mexico and Costa Rica. COSTA RICA - Volume improving AT PACKING with the expectation of further improvement on smaller counts. Some surplus fruit is available to pack on small counts currently. The U.S. market remains high on all counts with supply NOT meeting demand. Costa Rica is under mostly mixed conditions in the northern region.
Movement: The USDA is showing a low number of pineapple loads crossing last week with only 733 containers reported FROM Costa Rica for the entire Continental U.S.. It continues to be a very low number for this time of year with little change in the last few weeks.
Forecast: Some surplus fruit is currently being offered at shipping points by large grower/shippers. Market is lower with slow demand and slightly lower prices this week versus last week. SOME COSTA RICAN FRUIT IS BEING OFFERED AT SHIPPING POINT.
Strawberries
Santa Maria volume continues to decline, and we are currently under a freeze watch. Estimates are that most (but not all) industry shippers are reliant on volumes out of this region the next 2-3 weeks to keep supply steady as Florida catches up. Mexico volumes continue to increase. The quality out of Central Mexico early this season has not been strong. Hopefully, over the weekend, we see results of taking the weekend off to strip and clean fields. We had late plantings in both Oxnard and Baja, as these were new deals for us. We saw the typical delays and problems that you go through when entering a new area. We are hopeful to start production in both areas by Thanksgiving. Florida continues to scrape by, but we are seeing issues with replantings. We should see overall acreage affected but expect a concentrated crop to come together; overall, volumes may potentially be down from last season. This will continue to play out and develop over time
Watermelon
Supplies are very tight on watermelons and mini watermelons. Northern Mexico slowed down with the cooler weather. Northern Mexico will go another 2-3 weeks. Southern Mexico will start after Christmas. Supplies will be tight in December and January. Offshore melons will start in December. Yucatan, Mexico, will start in February.
Organic Fruits & Vegetables
Organic Apples
[email protected]We are now harvesting and shipping new crop on all organic varieties. Overall, the organic apple crop will be smaller than last season. The organic Honeycrisp will be much shorter than last season and is expected to be down over 40%. Expect to see higher prices and for Honeycrisp to remain tight. The organic Granny crop is also a little short and we expect to see prices climb as we get later in the year. The organic Gala and Pink Lady are both down compared to last season, but just a little, so these varieties look to be the most promotable for the rest of the year.
Organic Dry Vegetables
[email protected]Nogales seems to be getting started on some dry vegetables. We are mostly seeing some cucumbers, bell peppers, sweet peppers, and zucchini. There is not a lot of volume coming in so markets are firm. As we get further into November, we will start seeing things really open up and be promotable.
Organic Melons
[email protected]Organic minis will go for another 2-3 weeks out of Northern Mexico. Then, we will be done until spring for supplies.
Organic Onions
[email protected]Organic onions are going strong now! Supply is coming from Washington, Oregon, and California. Overall quality is outstanding! The markets have come down from their highs and are now starting to be promotable. Our onion program out of Hollister, California, is peaking on jumbos. We have plenty of red and yellow onions, and the quality is outstanding!
Organic Pears
[email protected]We are now shipping new crop organic Bartletts, organic Anjou, and organic Bosc this week. Overall, the organic pear crop will be down 30%-50%, depending on the variety. Expect prices to be much higher than previous years, but quality remains very good.
Organic Potatoes
[email protected]The potato season is in full swing now with all varieties available out of Washington, Colorado, and Wisconsin. Demand is strong and it’s time to get your Thanksgiving advertisements in place. Markets are steady at this point on all three colors. Specialty potatoes (fingerlings and baby potatoes) are in good supply as well.
Organic Squash
[email protected]It is time to start pushing winter squash! The weather is changing, and so are store sets. Time to carry all of the great varieties we are offering out of Hollister, California! Quality is very good with very little scarring on the squash. We have Butternut, Spaghetti, Acorn, Delicata, and Carnival!
Organic Sweet Potatoes
[email protected]The sweet potato market has now moved on to only new crop. Growers are still digging up sweet potatoes, but all varieties are now available out of Livingston, California. Markets are strong currently due to the new crop starting, but it is also time to start thinking about your Thanksgiving advertisements. Give us a call, and we can help you set up those advertisements!
Transportation
Western United States
October experienced normal seasonality, with the expectation being similar through November. The Pacific Northwest region picked up in early October as apples started to ship out more. As the month progressed, Arizona started their season out of Nogales and Yuma as well. Both Arizona and the Pacific Northwest saw early capacity constraints while there was a higher L/T ratio; but over the past couple weeks, that has stabilized with more capacity entering those regions. Entering November, freight out of the Salinas area will begin to slow down as production out of Yuma increases for harvesting mixed vegetables, which will last through the first quarter of 2025. November will end with Thanksgiving during the last week of November. While normal seasonality is expected, keep in mind that this can mean difficulties with coverage and higher rates, especially for short-notice and recovery loads.
The oversupply of carriers continues with the ability to cover loads being relatively available despite seeing some fluctuations in price points that had been previously stable. Expect this to continue, at least through the first couple weeks of November. Freight out of Arkansas specifically has seen pockets of tightness with low lead time. Simple freight is moving quickly, while more complex shipments are taking more time. Produce season out of Indiana is coming to an end, but expect things to stay relatively flat through November.
Eastern United States
Tightness prevailed in October primarily due to two major hurricanes in the Southeast, which caused capacity constraints resulting in a backlog of freight. The market has since corrected itself and settled back into a regular seasonal cadence. As we move into November, we will begin to see a small produce push out of the Southeast as the fall crop is ready to haul.
GLOBAL UPDATES
OCEAN CARRIER CONSOLIDATION - Fresh produce growers and shippers attempting to move cargo globally via ocean vessels are dealing with scenarios where ocean carriers genuinely dictate some markets. They dictate and determine the marketability and viability of export markets for many fresh produce exporters. Shippers are being forced to commit earlier to ocean lines to reserve space for upcoming seasons, and spot market space on vessels is nearly impossible to secure.
RED SEA SHIPPING CRISIS – The total capacity of ocean containers has grown by 10% in the past 12 months, yet much capacity was absorbed by re-routing from the Red Sea and Asia port congestion in recent months. Hundreds of ships are currently diverting around Africa to avoid attacks in the Red Sea, causing delays to global trade and inflicting months of disruption and imminent price rises on supplies. Crisis has led to doubling insurance costs and soaring demands for security services, which has raised prices and affected availability of fresh produce from Africa and Australia.
DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Shippers negotiating with ocean carriers or freight forwarders on perishable cargo contracts should request as much free time at destination as possible to reduce the risk of detention/demurrage charges when inspections/fumigations or drayage capacity constraints delay cargo delivery at destination. Unavoidable and unprecedented demurrage and detention charges due to delays in turning cargo at destination continue through 2024.
CONTAINER SHORTAGE – The ongoing shortage of refrigerated ocean containers is significantly affecting shipments from Latin America (LATAM) to the USA. This issue stems from a combination of seasonal demand and global logistics disruptions. An imbalance in container availability, compounded by extended transit times and port congestion, is leading to delays and rising shipping costs. Most ocean carriers have responded by imposing elevated peak-season surcharges. Addressing this issue requires coordinated efforts to improve container availability and streamline logistics processes.
For more global freight insights please visit Global Freight Markets Insights | C.H. Robinson.
Floral
Thanksgiving shipping is nearing completion from both Colombia and Ecuador. Operations are expected to return to normal by the end of the week.