Freshspective
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 | Issue 159
Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Conventional Vegetables
Regional Field Update
Mexico:
Volume crossing continues to be slow, and the quality of the smaller sizes isn’t optimal due to recent weather challenges. However, new fields are opening up in preparation for the Caborca season, with projections indicating a start date of mid-January. We will start the transition for loading out of Mexico around the 20th, so let’s keep talking so we can plan the transition for your accounts.
Peru:
The majority of production is now concentrated in the north region of Peru (Trujillo). The fields are steady and will continue to produce consistently until February unless we have a weather event. Quality remains stable, although we are seeing an increase in seeding. This is normal for this time of year, as Peru is in the middle of summer, and the warmer temperatures can affect the crop, since asparagus is a cool-weather plant.
Bell Peppers
[email protected]Product continues to be in a deficit, but it looks like Florida is slowly getting into the game. For the first time, we are noticing a few more growers starting to harvest. Mexico is slowly getting more product, but limited labor could have an impact on harvesting.
Broccoli
[email protected]Good-quality broccoli is available in California, Mexico, and Georgia. We expect to see promotable prices this week and next for the holiday pulls.
Cabbage
Cabbage availability is very tight due to some unevenness in the weather over the last several weeks. Georgia and Florida are struggling to get the cabbage to size up and Texas is also running short on volume.
Celery
[email protected]Celery supplies are steady with good volume available in Oxnard and Santa Maria. The desert growing region is expected to start in mid-January. The weather forecast calls for cooler temperatures with no rain expected in the growing regions. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for updates and information regarding availability and promotions.
Cucumbers
[email protected]Honduran season is officially here, as containers are starting to arrive. Good availability in Florida for both local and offshore product. Mexico is still steady, although we are hearing that a lot of the product is not crossing but staying in the domestic market.
Greens
[email protected]Availability and quality on greens is good. Weather has been cooler, but this has little to no impact on the plants. Be sure to start planning for your New Year’s promotions today!
Leaf Lettuce
[email protected]Iceberg lettuce, romaine, red and green leaf supplies are in good shape this week. Quality reports are showing good overall quality with occasional seeder reported but the cooler weather is helping to minimize the issue. The weather forecast calls for average temperatures this week with no rain in the forecast. The primary shipping points are Yuma and the Imperial Valley with some availability in Oxnard. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for more details.
Potatoes
[email protected]We are nearing the end of the holiday pull and sheds are running at full tilt to cover all of the existing business. Quality remains excellent. Look for demand to drop off after the holidays.
Squash
[email protected]Yellow squash was reacting last week in Mexico, as yields were lower than expected. Even though cooler temperatures in Florida have been the story, we continue to see steady volume. We are in decent shape heading into the holiday pull. We do need to keep an eye on the labor in Mexico, as many growers will have limited availability due to the holiday.
Sweet Corn
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Conventional Fruits
Apples
We are now in the last weeks of 2024 and we are moving a lot of apples. The overall crop is a good one with estimates around 129 million cases total. Although this is smaller than last year’s crop of approximately 136 million, it’s still considered a larger than normal crop. Due to the good growing conditions this season, we’ve had reportedly good-quality fruit again this year. Most varieties, with a few exceptions, were down a little from last season, but we do have one important crop that was down significantly from last year. The conventional Honeycrisp crop is now reported to be down over 30% compared to last year’s crop, resulting in higher prices this season. The organic Honeycrisp are even worse with this crop being down over 40% this season. Expect the Honeycrisp prices to remain high and continue to rise as we enter 2025. Other items that are tighter this week include bagged Granny Smith, large Fuji and large Gala. There is one variety that we have a larger crop than last season and that is the newer Cosmic Crisp variety. The crop is up over 20% from last season and we expect good promotional opportunities to be available on the conventional and organic Comics for this year and next. Overall, we still have good supplies of apples to sell and expect attractive pricing on most varieties through the remainder of the year. Apples will remain a good category to promote for the next several months with a predictable supply of high-quality fruit.
Avocados
Grower origins with fruit in the USA market this week into next week.
Mexico total containers imported last week: 1,000+ EST - 20%
• Supply was affected by some packing houses temporarily closing; also, this time of year, where there are religious activities in some municipalities, reducing the time for harvest and packing. The USDA also has some training scheduled for this week on Monday/Tuesday that will shorten the days of packing. This to be expected until January.
• Size curve and demand is shifting in the U.S. market, with several retailers moving to smaller fruit being promoted.
• The Aventajada harvest is not meeting the size expectation and volume expected by the U.S. market.
• The size curve of the Mexico harvest is heavily concentrated on 60s and smaller fruit.
• Percentage of #2 fruit is starting to increase as well as Mexico is shipping excess fruit into the domestic market and non-traditional export countries in Central America.
Market Share %:
1. California 0%
2. Peru 0%
3. Chile 1%
4. Dominican Rep 1%
5. Colombia 1%
Bush Berries
[email protected]
Blueberries:
Seeing arrivals and volume stay strong, with Chilean fruit on the water and no real let-down out of Peru.
• Peruvian volumes continue to enter the market, peaking with good quality and availability to keep retail priced right. Quality is moving cases, seeing increases in demand year over year. Jumbo quality and size continue to come in with particularly good volumes. Organic volumes continue to increase.
• Chile fruit is on the water, with first arrivals to U.S. next week.
• Port Strike Update - While nothing is official, our plan is to look to send heavy arrivals of bulk fruit into Holt Port in New Jersey and distribute to different packing facilities to utilize the pack space of domestic packers. We should have space on the ships, because we generally book out all charter space in years past, to avoid the breakbulk containers. There could be other issues to arise, but this is our current plan.
Blackberries:
• Good volumes crossing; quality is improved and ready to go. Looking for promotions for the holidays.
• Organic volume steady.
• Volumes continue to be steady. Expecting a two-week jump in availability and tighter availability as we get to the holidays or cooler weather starts.
• Organics are increasing and while the market is showing signs of being under supplied, we should be in a decent spot.
Cantaloupe
Cantaloupes remain very limited as many of the major shippers are experiencing vessel delays this week. Expected inbounds for today are pushed back. Hopefully by the end of this week, we will see some light availability. Expect the market to remain tight until early-/mid-January.
Citrus
Oranges: California continues to have good availability and quality of navel oranges. The crop is still peaking on small fruit, with good volume on 72/88/113/138 counts. Large fruit is more limited but should improve some as the season continues. Cooler nights in the growing regions are helping fruit color up naturally, with little to no gassing hours needed. Quality is great, with brix ranging from 12-13. Florida juice oranges are available, peaking on 100/125/138 counts. The Hamlin variety should be available through most of January. Florida navels have ended while Valencias are expected to start end of January. California Cara Caras are available, with crop peaking on 113/138/88 counts. Availability has improved as fruit has colored up naturally with cooler nights. Blood oranges have started in a small way, with mostly smaller sizes available, 113/138 counts. Minneolas are slated to start mid-January.
Mandarins: Import Moroccan Clementines are readily available on the East Coast with early-season varieties. Sizing is peaking on 2s and 3s. Moroccan Nadorcotts will start in January and should last through mid-April.
California Clementines are coming into more volume and good availability. The Clemenule variety is available, with Tangos to start next year. Overall volume for the season is up from last year with sizing peaking on 28 count. Florida tangerines are available, peaking on 120/150 counts. Orri mandarins out of Florida are anticipated to start soon, peaking on 100 count.
Grapes
California red grapes are still readily available this week with a wide range in pricing and quality. There are deals out there; however, quality and age of fruit could be an issue on the cheaper side. There is good quality tub-packed fruit selling. Imports red volumes are increasing on both coasts with good quality and a range of sizes to choose from. Import greens will remain extremely tight on both coasts, but especially Out West. Look for pricing to remain elevated this week and next.
Honeydew
Honeydews remain limited this week as offshore vessels are delayed with Guatemalan/Honduran product. The Northern Mexico honeydew crop is wrapped up and only some lingering pallet volume available. Our Robinson Fresh honeydew program out of Southern Mexico will begin arriving in Nogales early January.
Limes
Region: Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Update: The upcoming week’s weather suggests several days of rain. Anticipate high humidity, with temperatures fluctuating between 61°F and 83°F.
Market Intel: The demand for limes has been steady.
Sizing Profile: Peak sizes are 200/175/230s. Size distribution: 110-7%, 150-5%, 175-30%, 200-23%, 230-13%, and 250-5%.
Quality: Quality issues being reported: oil spots, blanching, scarring, and skin breakdown.
Looking Ahead: During January, as mentioned, the volume will decrease slightly each week, but fruit is being left on the trees, so we expect a steady supply in January. We will have small- to medium-sized fruit from the new crop and larger sizes from the fruit left on the trees. This will be very beneficial for our programs, with no significant reduction expected this month.
Mangos
• We are expecting for Peru to have a good season this year with plenty of volume (around 25 million boxes this year alone). It is expected for Peru to have smaller sizes at the beginning of the season compared to others as there has been a water shortage in the country which is needed for the size of the mango to increase. This is causing crops to be mainly concentrated on the 9/10/12 count sizes. It will be dependent on rains or a better water situation for the size of the fruit to increase. The expectation for the Peruvian mango season is for it to go up until the second week of February, packing from Peru which means arrivals early in March.
• Quality of the fruit being harvested remains constant in quality and condition, with great arrivals to the U.S. to all ports of entry. Good internal and external color and good pressures as well.
• Same as Ecuador, Peru is having vessel problems and availability. We expect most of the shipments to go to the East Coast as there is more availability there. We are also hearing that there is a carton shortage in the industry for new orders placed to the carton company due to over-commitments from the carton company, as well as other commodities such as grapes and berries that are still in season. This shortage is expected to get better starting January of 2025. In the meantime, shippers are looking at having to ship generic cartons that are available.
• It is being said that there is a possibility of another union strike on the East Coast ports starting January 15th. We will keep monitoring this day by day to keep everyone informed. We are looking at alternatives to bring product into the U.S. now in case this strike does happen (i.e., ports with no union labor and West Coast ports).
• We will also be seeing organic mango coming in on our 4-kilogram box this season to both the West and East Coasts.
• Crop outlook in Peru is about 50% large sizes (6-9 counts) followed by 50% on small sizes (10/12 counts).
• Current weather conditions in Tambo Grande, Peru are in the high-80s to high-60s.
Papaya
Supply meeting demand for papaya in the U.S. market. Supply conditions remain with low yields and marginal quality affecting papaya in Mexico. Contracts are being serviced but not much surplus to offer. Prices are stable after coming down from extremely high prices in the U.S. market. Crop yields continue to be affected by weather which has not been ideal for papaya production. Weather conditions in Mexico have not been favorable for improving yields. Inventories are showing little availability to offer.
Majority of sizes are between 6–12s with little surplus fruit.
Quality is reported as marginal with fruit showing less speckling and some scarring.
Color 25%- 50% / 12-14 brix at point of shipping. The ideal temperature for shipping Imperial papaya is 48 degrees to avoid quality issues upon receiving.
Crop outlook: Forecast has conditions for tight supply for the next two weeks.
Market Intel: There is enough supply to service demand.
Pears
We are now shipping Bartletts, Anjou, Bosc, and red pears out of Washington and Oregon. Overall, the pear crop will be very short this year, with all varieties being down 30% to 50%. The good news is that the remaining fruit will be of good quality and is eating well this year. Due to the short crop, expect prices to be much higher than in previous years and for supplies to remain tight for the foreseeable future.
Pineapple
Availability: Supply Meeting Demand in U.S. Market!
Growing regions: MEXICO - Little volume of fruit crossing out of Mexico last week with growers keeping fruit to be sold at internal markets with good overall prices. Weather at the pineapple fields is keeping yields low with marginal internal quality and brix. Transportation out of Mexico is stable with good availability of trucks to service pineapple shippers. COSTA RICA - Supply is stable but with not much surplus at the packing plants. Availability went down last week with a reduction in volume even on small fruit, affecting the very important holiday European pull. Good quality on fruit being exported. Shortage of large fruit has not changed and as per latest forecast, it will continue for the remainder of this season. Market is stable but expected to increase with less availability to service demand. NO significant surplus expected to happen, and prices will likely increase.
Quality: Mexican fruit quality is marginal with little to NO fruit meeting U.S. specifications. Prices are high on all counts out of Mexico and Costa Rica. COSTA RICA - Volume struggling AT PACKING with expectation to tighten up for the next 4 weeks. NO surplus fruit available to pack on large or small counts at this time. The U.S. market is stable on all counts. Costa Rica is under HEAVY RAINS in the northern region.
Movement: The USDA is showing a low number of pineapple loads crossing last week with only 1,045 containers reported FROM Costa Rica for the entire continental USA. It’s a very low number for this time of year with little change in the last few weeks.
Forecast: Some surplus fruit is being offered at U.S. shipping points by large grower/shippers at this time. Market is stable with similar prices this week versus last week.
Strawberries
Central Mexico has steady supplies while Santa Maria and Oxnard, California growing areas are winding down for the season. Florida volume should pick up in the next 7 to 10 days, and Baja, California is covering a few orders. Demand has slowed which should correct pricing. Quality issues still persist after the rains. California fruit is fair quality, some white shoulders, decay, and medium to small sizing. Mexico fruit is mostly better quality than the California fruit. Santa Maria, California for the week of 12/16 is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday to be mostly sunny, becoming partly sunny on Friday, and mostly cloudy for the weekend. Highs in the 70s, decreasing to the 60s Friday through the weekend, and lows in the 40s. The week of 12/23 is forecast Monday to be partly sunny, Tuesday cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon, Wednesday and Thursday mostly sunny, Friday rain, Saturday sunny, and Sunday mostly cloudy. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Oxnard is forecast for the week of 12/16 on Wednesday and Thursday to be sunny, becoming mostly cloudy through the weekend. Highs in the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday, decreasing to the 60s for the balance of the week, and lows in the 50s. The week of 12/23 is forecast for Monday through Thursday to be mostly sunny, Friday mostly cloudy with rain showers in the afternoon, and then mostly sunny through the weekend. Highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Central Mexico for the week of 12/16 is forecast to be mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm on Sunday. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. For the week of 12/23, the forecast is for Monday to be mostly cloudy, Tuesday through Thursday partly sunny with occasional thunderstorms, and then Friday through the weekend intervals of clouds and sunshine. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s.
Watermelon
Supplies are very tight on watermelons and mini watermelons. Northern Mexico has finished. Southern Mexico will start in a couple of weeks. Offshore supplies are lighter than expected with all the rain from the hurricanes. Supplies will be tight the rest of December and January. Yucatan, Mexico will start in February Out East.
Organic Fruits & Vegetables
Organic Apples
[email protected]We are now harvesting and shipping new crop on all organic varieties. Overall, the organic apple crop will be smaller than last season. The organic Honeycrisp will be much shorter than last season and is expected to be down over 40%. Expect to see higher prices and for Honeycrisp to remain tight. The organic Granny crop is also a little short and we expect to see prices climb as we get deeper into 2025. The organic Gala looks to be very similar to last season and the organic Pink Lady crop is actually up from last season and should be promotable in 2025.
Organic Dry Vegetables
[email protected]Nogales dry vegetables are finally going strong! We are seeing many varieties and sizing from there now. As we get further into December, we should see even more supply coming across the border.
Organic Onions
[email protected]Organic onions are in full swing right now with plenty available from multiple locations. Quality of the onions has been outstanding so far! Washington has red, yellow, white, and sweets available and they are looking to promote. Our California program (Tobias Farms) still has plenty of red and yellow onions and they look great! We should see this market stay steady until we get into February.
Organic Pears
[email protected]We are now shipping new crop organic Bartletts, organic Anjou, and organic Bosc this week. Overall, the organic pear crop will be down 30%-50%, depending on the variety. Expect prices to be much higher than previous years, but quality remains very good.
Organic Potatoes
[email protected]We are in the middle of POTATO season. Quality out of the Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and other locations is very good. Shippers are looking to promote and are willing to give some advance pricing if need be. We should not see much change in this situation for at least 2 to 3 more months.
Organic Squash
[email protected]Winter squash is in full swing at this point coming out of Mexico and is available to load out of Nogales. Our California squash program (Tobias Farms) has gone very well this season. We are down to butternut, spaghetti, Delicata, and Carnival. We should have supply through December.
Organic Sweet Potatoes
[email protected]The theme of the week is “full swing.” Sweet potatoes are going strong and every variety and size is available right now. Quality out of the Livingston, California area is great! Pricing has come down some from the highs of October but is still pretty strong.
Transportation
Western United States
November saw the typical seasonal shift in the West Coast produce industry. As Salinas Valley’s harvest wound down, shippers transitioned their operations to Yuma, Arizona, where they will remain until April. Increased volume leading into Thanksgiving caused rates and spot volume to increase. After the Thanksgiving holiday, California-based markets have mostly returned to pre-holiday rates, which should remain flat until the last weeks of December when Christmas and New Year’s markets finish off the year with rates similar to Thanksgiving and Yuba City festival.
Eastern United States
Prior to the Thanksgiving holiday, the East Coast was following typical trends of remaining relatively soft. There is always a small produce season in Florida and Georgia during this time, but the market is not typically affected by it. The market has settled back down as of the first week of December and is expected to remain stable until the end-of-year holidays.
Subscribe to our Client Advisories for the most up-to-date information about shifting market conditions. Work with your C.H. Robinson team to stay informed on regionalized opportunities and how to best schedule freight to capitalize on the best price and service.
GLOBAL UPDATES
OCEAN CARRIER CONSOLIDATION - Fresh produce growers and shippers attempting to move cargo globally via ocean vessels are dealing with scenarios where ocean carriers genuinely dictate some markets. They dictate and determine the marketability and viability of export markets for many fresh produce exporters. Shippers are being forced to commit earlier to ocean lines to reserve space for upcoming seasons, and spot market space on vessels is nearly impossible to secure.
RED SEA SHIPPING CRISIS – The total capacity of ocean containers has grown by 10% in the past 12 months, yet much capacity was absorbed by re-routing from the Red Sea and Asia port congestion in recent months. Hundreds of ships are currently diverting around Africa to avoid attacks in the Red Sea, causing delays to global trade and inflicting months of disruption and imminent price rises on supplies. Crisis has led to doubling insurance costs and soaring demands for security services, which has raised prices and affected availability of fresh produce from Africa and Australia.
DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Shippers negotiating with ocean carriers or freight forwarders on perishable cargo contracts should request as much free time at destination as possible to reduce the risk of detention/demurrage charges when inspections/fumigations or drayage capacity constraints delay cargo delivery at destination. Unavoidable and unprecedented demurrage and detention charges due to delays in turning cargo at destination continued through 2024.
CONTAINER SHORTAGE – The ongoing shortage of refrigerated ocean containers is significantly affecting shipments from Latin America (LATAM) to the USA. This issue stems from a combination of seasonal demand and global logistics disruptions. An imbalance in container availability, compounded by extended transit times and port congestion, is leading to delays and rising shipping costs. Most ocean carriers have responded by imposing elevated peak season surcharges. Addressing this issue requires coordinated efforts to improve container availability and streamline logistics processes.
For more global freight insights please visit Global Freight Markets Insights | C.H. Robinson.
Floral
Supply and capacity are adequate this week. Farms are preparing for Christmas shipping.