2025 Truckload trends: rates, capacity, and regional updates
U.S. spot market forecast
Spot rates are expected to continue to decrease through the first quarter, but at a slower pace than they have recently. The large decrease in spot rates through January and into February was mostly due to coming off peak rates from the holidays and winter storm impacts. Now that these events are behind us, rates should begin to normalize as they hit a floor.
The floor in early 2025 is expected to be near levels of the same timeframe in 2024 but slightly higher due to there being approximately 12,000 fewer carriers in the market than this time last year. The flattening as we approach the floor over the next few weeks is typical when compared to the five-year average.
Actionable takeaway: When getting quotes on spot market rates as the floor approaches, there likely won't be much room for rate improvements. Knowing this, you can save time during your tendering process and utilize that valuable lead time instead of chasing diminishing returns that may no longer exist.
The C.H. Robinson 2025 dry van cost per mile forecast is being cut from +9% y/y to +7%. Supply side factors drove our previous 9% y/y 2025 cost forecast. Our previous 9% growth forecast was based on a combination of:
- Above-trend inflation in the cost of operating a truck
- Continued reduction of carrier capacity
- Stubbornly soft freight demand
Looking at the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) Operational Cost of Trucking survey data, carrier operating costs excluding fuel increased 7%, 12%, and 6% respectively on a y/y basis in the years 2021-2023. This is a three-year inflation stack of 25%. Carrier operating costs tend to be more volatile than broad inflation measures. But normally we see a reset, that is, when the inflation of those costs declines significantly or goes negative in a freight cycle downturn. (See 2012 and 2019 in chart below).
However, we have not seen this reset in the current freight down cycle. Instead, inflation of carrier costs has outpaced broader measures of inflation by a wide margin over these three years. We estimate carrier cost inflation to slow to 4% this year and 2% next year. But our spot rate forecast is influenced by carriers’ need to catch up on the cumulative 25% inflation of the past three years.
On the demand side of the equation, consumer spending is by far the largest driver of freight volumes in the United States. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on goods for the month of January slowed 1.7% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis (see chart below) while spending on services remained roughly consistent. We’ll be watching how new U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs from other countries may affect consumer sentiment and spending.
Given the poor outlook for freight demand in the near term, why aren’t we cutting the forecast even more? U.S. trade policy is extremely fluid at the moment. We will be closely watching tariff negotiations and freight demand indicators in the next few weeks, including data on non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and industrial production.
Notes on forecast methodology*: The forecast is based on our current expectations for the y/y change in the weekly average for the cost of dry van linehaul (excluding the fuel surcharge) for long-haul truckload capacity (>250 miles length-of-haul) in 2025 vs 2024. The historical cost in our charts is based on DAT broker-to-carrier (frequently referred to as “spot”) dry van long haul (>250 miles length-of-haul) without lane or time expansions to avoid double counting and stale loads.
Similarly, the C.H. Robinson 2025 refrigerated van cost per mile forecast is being cut from 7% to 5% y/y.
Contract truckload environment
The following insights are derived from C.H. Robinson Managed Solutions™, which serves a large portfolio of customers across diverse industries.
Route guide depth (RGD) is an indicator of how far a shipper needs to go into their backup strategies when awarded transportation providers reject a tender. As displayed in the following chart, the RGD has remained flat at a historically low level for approximately two years. In these two plus years, the subtle peaks that have occurred are during times of seasonal stress. As we move past the holiday season and beyond impacts from winter storms, positioning trucks in time for acceptance improves, which is reflected in the strong improvement this past month.
For long hauls of more than 600 miles, the RGD in February 2025 was 1.23 (1 would be perfect performance and 2 would be extremely poor), which improved 5% compared to the month of January 2025, at 1.29 although slightly worse than February 2024, which was at 1.21.
The trend for shorter hauls of less than 400 miles is similar. RGD for February 2025 on these shorter hauls was 1.19, which is nearly 6% better than the previous month at 1.26 and also better than February 2024 at 1.20.
Geographically, the South experienced the smallest change of all regions, improving by 2.5% from the previous month, while the Midwest experienced the largest change, improving 6.6%. This reinforces the mention of winter weather above, as the South was least impacted by the storms and also worsened the least in RGD in January. The Midwest on the other hand was the most impacted by storms and also worsened the most in RGD in January. The RGD still remains at low levels between 1.14 and 1.21 for all regions.
Refrigerated truckload
East Coast United States
Northeast
As winter weather subsides, stability in capacity improves and rates have softened.
Southeast
The next few weeks should be very similar to the last few weeks. Capacity strains due to Valentine’s Day floral have subsided, and rates are expected to stabilize. The Southeast has experienced favorable growing conditions and weather that could mark an early start to produce shipping season, but a 1–2 week earlier start will likely be muted by commodity prices that are high enough to temper retail demand, avoiding a major disruption.
Central United States
Freight rates
Freight Rates have decreased since they peaked during winter storms in the region.
Texas
Delays and congestion have occurred along the southern border but have been improving recently. Capacity is expected to tighten slightly through March, applying minor pressure to rates as the quarter closes.
Current trends
Freight rates are beginning to level off as capacity is normalizing. The next month is expected to see more of the same.
West Coast United States
Demand
Load postings have decreased in recent weeks, slightly more than seasonally expected. This typical decrease has begun to flatten out and should see some subtle improvements in the coming weeks.
Current trends
Freight rates have broadly reached the lowest point of the year. Across the West, costs should stabilize over the next several weeks although they can vary from North to South, as well as by the ports or further inland.
Flatbed truckload
The flatbed market is starting to see a seasonal upturn as winter weather moves out of much of the country. Two industries are expected to see the greatest fluctuation in the coming weeks—building products and raw metals.
As storm and fire recovery moves into full swing, building material orders in affected areas have increased. It often takes time to assess damage and get insurance or other plans solidified before implementation. Orders are now beginning to come through in response to hurricane damage in 2024 and that will likely continue with California fire damage. Pre-spring inventory buildup for landscape supplies, residential, and commercial building products is in the early stages and will ramp up quickly, likely following normal seasonal patterns this year. If you are looking for assistance with increased spot demand, C.H. Robinson can aggregate capacity to avoid delays in fulfillment.
The metals market has been tumultuous recently, with looming tariff impacts causing some buyers to pre-order imported products, creating urgency and strain on capacity in port areas and across the Canadian border. Domestic metals producers are optimistic on the outlook for 2025, but demand is likely to still come in localized pockets. Safety in the metals world is a key ingredient of a successful supply chain. C.H. Robinson can help vet carriers with the proper equipment and loading practices to minimize risk in this marketplace.
Maintain close communication with logistics partners, monitor late season weather developments, and adjust capacity plans accordingly to navigate these evolving market conditions effectively.
Voice of the carrier
Market insights
- Carriers have reported a busy RFP bid season with modest price increases for contractual bids.
- There is a growing imbalance on cross-border freight in and out of Mexico, with ample capacity available for volume going south across the border.
Drivers
- Hiring drivers is not currently a challenge, and carriers are being more selective.
- Driver retention levels are comfortable and typical.
Equipment
- Many carriers have equipment parked, waiting for the market to rebound.
- New equipment is plentiful and easily accessible, but the costs have increased.
- Parts have been increasingly harder to procure, and maintenance costs continue to weigh heavily on the bottom line.