Cross-border freight: U.S.–Mexico & U.S.–Canada challenges
U.S.–Mexico
Impact of U.S. tariffs
The Mexican economy faces uncertainty due to rapidly evolving U.S. trade policies. As negotiations unfold, President Sheinbaum has said that her government will continue to work with the United States to support the stable bilateral trade and the billions in foreign investment Mexico has attracted. President Sheinbaum has indicated that Mexico´s priority is to maintain the current North American trade agreement known as USMCA.
The National Chamber of Freight Carriers (CANACAR) has expressed concerns over U.S. tariffs on goods made in Mexico, which pose an additional challenge to carriers already facing security issues and a driver shortage. Continued U.S. tariffs and possible retaliatory tariffs could reduce freight volumes and increase operating costs, affecting carriers and companies on both sides of the border.
Freight capacity and market conditions
Long lines of trucks from the Mexican side of the Laredo port in late February due to multiple factors.
(Source: OpenLaredo.com International Bridge IV Camera)
Trucking capacity in Mexico remains favorable, providing flexibility for both cross-border and intra-Mexico shipments from key manufacturing regions—the Bajío, central Mexico, and the northeast. Carriers are open to negotiating and offering competitive rates for projects that align with their priorities. These include routes with fewer disruptions, such as roadblocks on key highways in central Mexico that impact transit times and equipment repositioning, as well as areas with lower cargo theft risks.
In February, several events caused delays for freight crossing the border. Mexico´s VUCEM customs system underwent maintenance, causing delays and slow processing, but those updates have now been completed. Also in February, extensive inspections by Mexico´s National Guard at border crossings led to significant delays. Nearly all cargo vehicles heading to the United States underwent individual inspections, resulting in pronounced congestion and delays of up to eight hours.
These measures stemmed from bilateral agreements aimed at preventing the imposition of tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States. In late February, the Mexico side of the World Trade Bridge at Laredo was blocked when a group of Mexican drivers protested the impact long lines have on their business.
Regarding transportation operating costs, diesel prices in Mexico have remained stable since the last quarter of 2024. The peso-dollar exchange rate saw little fluctuation as the market awaited the U.S. government’s decision on tariffs that went into effect March 4. The Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications, and Transport (SICT) announced that in March, it will begin the Road Conservation Program, which includes road and bridge maintenance and improved signage.
Automotive industry challenges and opportunities
2024 was a historic year for Mexico’s export sector. Mexico achieved a record trade surplus with the United States in the automotive sector, 6% higher than in 2023, while all exports to the United States grew by 4.9%. This surplus has more than doubled over the last decade, highlighting Mexico’s growing integration into North American supply chains.
Mexican automotive production also set a record in 2024, increasing by 5.6% compared to 2023. The United States remains the primary destination for Mexican exports, receiving 80% of them. As of November 2024, Mexico’s auto parts production reached a 2% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Despite tariff uncertainties, the Mexican National Auto Parts Industry Association (INA) forecasts 3.35% growth in 2025. Mexico remains the largest auto parts supplier to the United States, accounting for 43% of U.S. imports.
Despite the record-breaking figures of 2024, early 2025 indicators show warning signs. Automotive production increased by just 1.7% in January 2025, while exports dropped by 13.7%, impacted by tariff uncertainty. OEMs in Mexico have seen export declines of up to 58% compared to January 2024.
Beyond U.S. tariffs that went into effect March 4 on goods made in Mexico, a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports is scheduled for March 12 and the U.S. president has indicated that tariffs on automobile imports could start April 2.
According to Mexico’s National Auto Parts Industry Association (INA), these tariffs could increase production costs by approximately $3,000 USD per vehicle and lead to a 1.5% decline in Mexico’s manufacturing GDP. Meanwhile, a White House spokesperson said March 5 that tariffs on vehicles that comply with the 2020 U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement's rules of origin would get a one-month exemption. As this report was published, no official executive order had been filed.
The sector must prepare for short-term volatility while strategically positioning itself to capitalize on nearshoring opportunities and manufacturing expansion in the medium- and long-term.
U.S.–Canada
The freight market in Canada is currently experiencing an imbalance of supply and demand.
Weather Impacts
Various winter storms impacted Ontario and Quebec in February, bringing more snowfall than seen in over a century. These large snowstorms resulted in the inability of many carriers to leave their facilities, let alone deliver freight. One-day trips turned into three-day journeys, affecting supply chains. The storms were close enough to have a strong compounding effect, especially since approximately 70% of Canadian carriers are based in these provinces.
Labor issues
In the wake of the winter storms, a shortened week due to a holiday took even more carriers off the market while demand continued to stockpile. This comes during a time when a large portion of Canadian drivers are currently off duty. The Southeast Asian community in Canada tends to return home overseas during most of the first quarter to avoid the harsh winter weather.
Carrier bankruptcies
Due to the depressed freight market over the past several months and years, some carriers have struggled to make payments on their equipment loans. Many banks have been offering leniency and forgiveness to help carriers while others have started to call in loans from carriers that failed to make payments.
Tariff impacts
As the March 4 enactment of U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory tariffs approached, some companies rushed to ship as much product as possible to avoid the extra duties. Late February saw a scramble to stock freight across the borders in both directions, similar to the burst of order activity seen in late January before tariffs were originally proposed to begin.
Looking forward, the weather is beginning to improve, which will allow for capacity networks to return to normal, especially with the return of the Southeast Asian driver community. The next few weeks should see improved conditions. To ensure successful movement of your freight, provide as much lead time as possible.. This flexibility helps find the right drivers at the right time to keep your freight moving.