Temporary spot rate increases are back to normal
U.S. spot market forecast
The winter storms throughout a good portion of the United States resulted in increased spot rates for the beginning of January. This disruption was temporary, and rates quickly began to decrease. They are now following the typical seasonal trend. The short-term impact and pace of the decrease suggests the previous C.H. Robinson forecast for the first quarter year over year (y/y) change is still accurate.
Early January also saw the California Air Resources Board (CARB) withdraw its request for a federal waiver to require that fleets transition toward zero-emission vehicles, due to expectations the current U.S. administration would deny it. While this may change the future landscape of carrier supply, the impact on the C.H. Robinson national spot forecast for 2025 is negligible.
Looking ahead, the C.H. Robinson 2025 dry van cost per mile forecast remains at +9% y/y compared to 2024.
The C.H. Robinson 2025 refrigerated van cost per mile forecast remains at +7% y/y.
Contract truckload environment
The contractual environment experienced minor and sporadic difficulties in January 2025 due to winter storms impacting roads, facilities, and equipment repositioning. Despite these temporary disruptions, the contractual landscape remains relatively unchanged. Because the contract environment tends to follow the spot environment, monitoring the spot market over the next several months will be important.
The following insights are derived from C.H. Robinson Managed Solutions™, which serves a large portfolio of customers across diverse industries.
Route guide depth (RGD) is an indicator of how far a shipper needs to go into their backup strategies when awarded transportation providers reject a tender. As displayed in the following chart, the RGD has remained flat at a historically low level for approximately two years.
For long hauls of more than 600 miles, the RGD in January 2025 was 1.29 (1 would be perfect performance and 2 would be extremely poor), which is slightly worse compared to the month of December 2024, at 1.27 and worse compared to January 2024, which was at 1.23. RGD performance slightly worsened in January 2025 primarily due to winter weather, as previously expected in the January 2025 Freight Market Update.
The trend for shorter hauls of less than 400 miles is similar. RGD for January 2025 on these shorter hauls was 1.17, which is slightly worse than the previous month of 1.16 and worse than January 2024 at 1.10.
Geographically, the South experienced the smallest change of all regions, worsening by 0.6% from the previous month, while the Midwest experienced the largest change at 3.0%. The RGD still remains at low levels between 1.18 and 1.25 for all regions.
Refrigerated truckload
East Coast United States
January disruptions
The region faced significant disruptions in January due to post-holiday tightness and several major winter storms. These storms affected the Southeast and the eastern seaboard, causing delays and supply chain issues.
Current status
Supply levels have stabilized and returned to normal, now following the typical trends.
Valentine's Day impact
The demand for Valentine's Day flowers led to a significant increase in demand from Southern Florida during the first week of February. While this surge is expected to calm, a slight increase in floral demand may persist throughout the month.
Central United States
Freight rates
Elevated freight rates from the holiday season lasted longer than expected due to winter storms affecting many states from the Midwest to Texas. These storms caused delays and increased costs for transportation but were mostly temporary in nature.
Current trends
Freight rates are gradually returning to pre-holiday levels. However, there may still be occasional disruptions due to weather events.
West Coast United States
January trends
The region experienced typical post-holiday trends, with demand decreasing in the latter half of January as expected. This decrease in demand is part of the usual seasonal pattern.
Wildfires
Despite the wildfires in California, there have been minimal disruptions to freight within the state. The fires have not significantly impacted transportation routes or capacity.
Winter storms
Snow and ice caused some minor disruptions in capacity, particularly affecting the repositioning of equipment from Arizona to the West Coast. These disruptions were temporary and have since been resolved.
Pacific Northwest
The region is expected to have ample supply if there are no significant weather events or road closures. Capacity and rates should remain relatively stable.
Flatbed truckload
The impact of new tariffs on commodity markets
While tariffs haven't triggered unusual demand spikes yet, they are prompting some businesses to adjust their strategies. Companies are advancing orders and changing to domestic suppliers of raw materials to mitigate the effects of tariffs. Steel is one of the largest commodity markets experiencing this shift.
Building construction market remains steady amidst unchanged interest rates
With no alterations to interest rates, expect the building construction market to remain static, presenting a prime opportunity. Stakeholders within the construction industry can capitalize on these steady interest rates to optimize their procurement strategies and leverage the spot market to secure the best pricing available.
Advanced retail space: Steady y/y projections for mulch and landscaping supplies
As the advanced retail sector kicks off, initial indications show orders and inventories for mulch, landscaping supplies, and related products are expected to remain flat y/y. Any strain within this market segment is likely to be short-lived and highly concentrated in specific supplier areas, suggesting the overall impact will be minimal.
Weather's waning effect on the market
The impact of winter weather conditions on the market is beginning to subside, allowing businesses and consumers to move forward in a more predictable environment without significant weather-related disruptions.