Intermodal pricing expected to climb
Last year ended with total North America intermodal services up in volume by 7.5%. With data still coming in for January, so far 2025 volume is running at 10.3% growth year over year (y/y). Most models do not expect this pace to continue and are projecting volumes for intermodal to settle into a pace around 3% growth for the remainder of 2025.
Several factors contribute to the higher intermodal volumes
1. The averted port strikes and associated rerouting
These two events fostered a great deal of uncertainty. Some shippers have found West Coast ports paired with cross-country intermodal service is a better fit and continue to use this strategy than returning to East Coast ports.
2. Concerns over new tariffs
Many importers have pulled orders forward to keep costs down before tariffs go into place. Tariffs will be a key factor in how hot the market continues to be in 2025. While there is uncertainty around long-term costs, many importers continue to increase inventories just in case.
It remains to be seen if this will lead to a softening of demand in the future. If that does occur, the effects may be felt mostly later in 2025 and into 2026 due to long buying and stocking cycles.
3. Preemptive cost savings opportunities
Related to tariff uncertainty, some importers are preemptively looking for cost savings within their transportation networks. Accordingly, they are more willing to look at increasing lead times to accommodate intermodal transit times if it can help mitigate price increases.
2025 intermodal pricing prospects
Intermodal pricing is expected to climb in the low, single-digit range through 2025. Recent rail labor agreements signed by the U.S. railroads and persistent inflation are expected to drive this increase. With rates already on the rise, securing intermodal contracts now could be advantageous.
Intermodal spot rates remain depressed, reflecting the current truckload market. However, railroads anticipate a significant surge in spot pricing during the latter half of 2025. If they are correct, this suggests Q1 2025 could offer the year’s most competitive rates.
Intermodal service: Strong despite volume
Despite increased volume and demand, intermodal service metrics, such as train speeds, are performing well, even if slightly below the five-year average.
With strong service and low pricing, contact your C.H. Robinson representative to see how you can best take advantage of intermodal service within your portfolio.